Your predictions revealed
Many thanks to everyone who took part in the PB 2010 Prediction Competition hosted by The Election Game, with a turnout 31% up on 2009. The full summary predictions and player-by-player detail are available here, but these are the headline numbers.
UK General Election
Con maj 46
Labour Leader at Xmas
Ed Miliband 24%
David Miliband 20%
Harriet Harman 19%
Alan Johnson 7%
There are more potential Labour leadership candidates, plus full details of predictions for all questions asked, available at:
There are two elections today – the first round of Ukraine Presidential and the second round of Chile Presidential. Yanukoych and Tymoshenko will go through to the 7th February runoff in Ukraine, while exit polls are banned in Chile, but first indications of the tight Pinera-Frei runoff should be available in the next 2-3 hours.
Tuesday sees the US Senate special election in Massachusetts for Ted Kennedy’s vacant seat. GOP candidate Scott Brown has seen a recent surge, with leads in four of the last six polls, has climbed to 52 on Intrade from about 47 a day ago – and leading punter Philippe Magnan is putting his money on Brown. All of this suggests that the Republicans could be heading for an upset victory, a result in the bluest of states that looked unthinkable only recently.
The Democrats vote share may be down by 20% or more – and needless to say losing their 60-seat Senate supermajority as they struggle to pass healthcare has massive implications. A defeat here, almost a year to the day since Obama’s inauguration, will be an extremely worrying result for the White House as the midterms approach.