Expenses: What’ll be the impact of prosecutions?

Expenses: What’ll be the impact of prosecutions?

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What if they are only from one party? There’s lots of stories buzzing round that the Crown Prosecution Service will announce tomorrow the names of parliamentarians against whom action will be taken in the expenses scandal. According to Channel 4 News hour an ago two Labour MPs are on the list. We don’t know whether that is all or, indeed, whether this is the case. But criminal proceedings are taking the whole business one step further – and this far…

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Is this the best team for Labour in opposition?

Is this the best team for Labour in opposition?

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Has a PM Dave most to fear from the Gord-Ed duo? For me the big news of the week was the report that Brown would not step aside from the leadership even if, as expected, Labour loses the election. For everything we know about Brown is that he loves power and he is not going to give up easily the job he strove after for so long – even though, after May, the chances of him remaining at Number 10…

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Are we going to see a “reverse incumbency” effect?

Are we going to see a “reverse incumbency” effect?

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What’s this going to do in individual key seats? So here we are – what many MPs are hoping will be the low point for them in the whole expenses saga – the publication today of the Legg Report. Until we see the actual document we won’t get the full scale of what he’s concluded but it seems that up to half of all MPs will be ordered to pay back between them about £1m and that Sir Thomas himself…

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So what does this do to the seat calculations?

So what does this do to the seat calculations?

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Ipsos-MORI Is it really so different in the marginals? I’m just catching up with the Ipsos-MORI aggregate data for all its 2009 polls which have been highlighted by Anthony Wells at UKPR who is suggesting it provides further evidence that opinion is moving differently in the LAB>CON marginals. For what MORI has done is not only to show the aggregate data but to identify the shares by seat category with a particular emphasis on the marginals – something that is…

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Time to be taking your profits on the “Labour surge”?

Time to be taking your profits on the “Labour surge”?

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Sporting Index Is it Brown that’s now looking a bit vulnerable? One of the great attractions of spread-betting is that you can close positions down and pocket any profits months or even years before the event has been resolved. Another attraction if you are really serious is that you can operate on a credit basis which means you don’t have to put up any money when you make your bet. So in the early hours of Sunday morning after seeing…

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Dare you bet that the Angus Reid algorithm is wrong?

Dare you bet that the Angus Reid algorithm is wrong?

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Could its mathematics be right for 2010? Ever since the Angus Reid research director, Andy Morris, sent me the first spread-sheets of the first PB/Angus Reid poll last October I have known that there would come a moment when the firm’s methodological approach would leave it isolated from the rest. As those who follow these things will know the main characteristics of AR have been its consistency from survey to survey and the fact that it is reporting a much…

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So what happens if it is a hung parliament?

So what happens if it is a hung parliament?

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Could Brown hang on even if he loses his majority? Scenario: 3pm on May 7th. The last few constituencies are declaring but the result has been known for some hours. For the first time in 36 years, no party has won an overall majority. It’s always been quite a strong possibility: if Labour lose more than about a couple of dozen seats they lose their majority but the Tories need to gain well over a hundred to win outright. That’s…

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ComRes: “37 percent say Blair should face war crime charges”

ComRes: “37 percent say Blair should face war crime charges”

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…and 60% say Brown should share responsibility More information has just been published from the weekend ComRes poll and it doesn’t make comfortable reading for either Blair and his successor. A majority believes that Gordon Brown should share the blame while almost almost four in 10 people believe that Blair should face a war crimes trial over the 2003 invasion. The findings are a setback for Brown, who will give evidence to the Chilcot inquiry into the war in the…

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