2200 – UPDATED following the lifting of the embargo CON 38% (38) LAB 31% (29) LD 19% (19) At 10pm the embargo on tonight’s ComRes poll for the Independent will be lifted and I’ll be able to fill in the gaps on the number panels above. But the paper’s Andrew Grice has already blogged that the margin is seven points – adding to a terrible series of polls for Cameron’s Tories. Since Friday night we’ve three polls from the YouGov…
Ipsos-Mori This has just come out from Ipsos-MORI – a polling question that I quite like and have featured before. The last time this was put was in July 2008 which was just about the biggest low for Brown when all the talk was of Miliband (D) launching a coup to oust him. The poll took place just after Labour lost Glasgow East. You can play about with the numbers as you wish – and no doubt people will draw…
On revised boundaries? Not possible James Lyons in the News of the World over the weekend suggested that Cameron’s team had plans to have a second general election in 2010 if, as some polls are indicating, he doesn’t have a workable majority. He also said that before the second election measures would be taken to change the boundaries so it would be fought on a “fairer basis”. Lyons wrote: “Tories… are secretly drawing up plans to ask the country to…
CON SPREAD RANGES 347 – 352 Sporting Index 343 – 348 ExtraBet 351.5 – 355.5 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 212 – 217 Sporting Index 213 – 218 ExtraBet 211 – 214 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 Sporting Index 55 – 58 ExtraBet 53 – 53.5 Betfair Line market But the money is still well ahead of the seat projections As suggested here on Saturday morning the tightening of the Tory polling position over Labour…
Will he really stay on if Labour loses? The big story in the Sunday Times has serious implications for several betting markets if its turns out to be correct. The report opens: “Gordon Brown is making secret plans to stay on as Labour leader after the general election even if his party is defeated. The prime minister has told close colleagues that he will refuse to quit unless the Conservatives win a significant majority. “Gordon has said he believes his…
Mail on Sunday Is Number 10 trying to contain the Rawnsley damage? Late last night the above front page figured prominently in the SkyNews review of the papers which is available online. A couple of hours later. as reported on the last thread, PBers linking to Sky found that the Mail on Sunday’s story had been taken down – see here. Fortunately I had done a screen grab of the SkyNews paper review at 10.34 pm before that happened and…
Is 30% (+MoE) the limit in the current climate? Two events in Spring 2009 gave minor parties a massive boost in the polls. One was the coverage and electoral opportunities afforded by the European elections, the other was the disillusionment with the Conservatives and Labour that resulted from the expenses scandal (the Lib Dems’ poll rating was largely unaffected). After polling around 10% throughout winter 2008-9 with all firms except Comres, who put them a couple of points higher, Others shot up…
Twitter Will this ease the jitters at Cameron Towers? Barely 13 hours after the Telegraph’s YouGov poll (HAT-TIP Sam) showing the Tories lead down to just 7% there’s a new survey just out for tomorrow’s People. The figures are:- CON 40% (38) LAB 31% (31) LD 18%(19) So for the third YouGov poll in a row the Labour shares stays on 31% while the Tories recoup the two points that were lost in the overnight survey. There’s not a lot…