Will we ever do “negative” as effectively as this?

Will we ever do “negative” as effectively as this?

Comments 0 Comment

Could the reds or blues produce a version for the final week? With all the talk of negative ads today let’s look back five and half years to see how it’s really done. Could we get something similar here? Obviously we have PPBs not paid for TV political advertising but it’s the message that’s central. What about “could you trust this man with……his finger on the nuclear”/saving the world from a banking disaster….etc” with references to secretaries and chairs or…

Read More Read More

What does this say about Labour’s AV plan?

What does this say about Labour’s AV plan?

Comments 0 Comment

PoliticsHome Is a referendum promise really going to help them? The above is one of the findings from a PoliticsHome poll on Labour’s plan to legislate for a post general election referendum on the alternative vote system. Although I’m not totally convinced about the wording of the poll questions I think we can draw something from the findings – voters are highly cynical of such a move thirteen years after it first appeared as a Labour manifesto commitment. The damning…

Read More Read More

Is Brown really the Tories’ biggest asset?

Is Brown really the Tories’ biggest asset?

Comments 0 Comment

Are all parties underestimating the opposing leaders? James Forsyth had a post on the Spectator CoffeeHouse blog last night setting out a view that’s often expressed on PB threads:- “We just need to ram Gordon Brown down the electorate’s throat’ one Tory staffer said to me today when talking about how the party could get back on the front foot.” The unspoken thought was that the prospect of five more years of Gordon Brown would be enough to send voters…

Read More Read More

Is it because the marginals ARE different?

Is it because the marginals ARE different?

Comments 0 Comment

The map that changed my view of the election I’ve shown this before but it’s worth running again as we try focus on why things might be different in the marginals. For combined with the Andy Cooke analysis and the marginals polling, including last week’s aggregated MORI data, a clearer picture is emerging of the dynamics of the coming election and a better sense of the outcome. The map first appeared here in September 2007 in a guest slot by…

Read More Read More

Populus reports a 10 point Tory lead

Populus reports a 10 point Tory lead

Comments 0 Comment

CON 40% (41) LAB 30 % (28) LD 20 %(19) Is Andy Cooke starting to have an influence? The Populus poll for February is just out and provides further data which could be used to support the notion of a hung parliament. But well done the Times in its report on the poll for raising the question of how much the standard projections can be relied upon. Peter Riddell writes after giving the standard projection – “These estimates assume a…

Read More Read More

Could Cameron get a majority with a lead of just 5 points?

Could Cameron get a majority with a lead of just 5 points?

Comments 0 Comment

This is the second part of an examination by long-time PBer and statistician, Andy Cooke, into the level of Tory lead that the party will need at the general election in order to ensure a majority. If you have not read Part 1 then read that first before going onto this continuation What lead do the Tories need – Part 2? How to measure the probable unwind? The simplest thing to do would be to set the three effects as…

Read More Read More

Introducing the Andy Cooke Seat Calculator

Introducing the Andy Cooke Seat Calculator

Comments 0 Comment

Based on the concept of a pendulum – not a ratchet Later today we’ll be introducing a totally new commons seat calculator that has been developed by long-standing PBer and statistician, Andy Cooke. This will be published here sometime after lunch. It’s stems from the thinking outlined in Andy’s initial post yesterday in which he argued for the merits of “pendulum thinking” as we seek to project the coming election rather than the mind-set of “the ratchet.” For the conventional…

Read More Read More

PB Index: Con majority up 4

PB Index: Con majority up 4

Comments 0 Comment

The Labour backers continue to stay away Surprisingly, given, the latest ICM poll, the PB Index has seen a four seat upwards movement of the projected Tory majority. This has been mostly driven by changes in the latest prices from Sporting Index which now have CON 342 – 347: LAB 218 – 223: LD 53 -56 seats. The Extrabet market does not seem to operate at the weekend The Betfair line markets is virtually unchanged. So the roller-coaster February on…

Read More Read More