Populus reports a 10 point Tory lead

Populus reports a 10 point Tory lead

CON 40% (41)
LAB 30 % (28)
LD 20 %(19)

Is Andy Cooke starting to have an influence?

The Populus poll for February is just out and provides further data which could be used to support the notion of a hung parliament.

But well done the Times in its report on the poll for raising the question of how much the standard projections can be relied upon.

Peter Riddell writes after giving the standard projection – “These estimates assume a uniform national swing, or switch, of votes, but, in practice, there are likely to be regional and local variations…Moreover, there is evidence that the Tories may be doing better in their key target seats which would mean an overall majority at this level of national support.”

For based on the Andy Cooke analysis tonight’s numbers would produce a range of 374 – 384 Tory seats with a 100% chance of a majority. That seat range would see Cameron home with a majority of about 100.

The poll also finds that voters are becoming more likely to believe that there will be a hung parliament – which is hardly surprising giving the way that almost all the media is reporting this.

Time to start buying the Tories?

Mike Smithson

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