AR finds a bigger swing in the LAB-CON marginals

AR finds a bigger swing in the LAB-CON marginals

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CON 40% (33) LAB 28% (43) LD 15% (17) Are the blues are doing better where it matters? Today’s exclusive PB/Angus Reid poll was a standard national opinion survey making up its sample from 2,002 participants from constituencies all over Britain. It was not a specific marginals poll. But because of the size of the sample it has been possible to isolate that section of those surveyed who live in the main LAB>CON marginals. So the figures above are based…

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Labour closes the gap to 13 points in new PB/Angus Reid poll

Labour closes the gap to 13 points in new PB/Angus Reid poll

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CON 38% (40) LAB 25% (24) LD 20% (19) And will “others” will be squeezed by polling day? There’s a new exclusive PB/Angus Reid poll just out where the fieldwork started on Tuesday and finished only last night. The shares are above and show the Tories down a touch with Labour at its highest ever recorded level with the online pollster. This is the first full national survey to have been carried out since the three Labour MPs and a…

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What’s the cumulative affect of all of this?

What’s the cumulative affect of all of this?

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Something else to throw Brown Central off-stride? Another day and another book looking at what goes on within Gordon Brown’s Number 10 written by someone who was close to the heart of the party and government. The latest is by Lance Price, deputy to Tony Blair’s communications director Alastair Campbell and the first part of its serialisation starts today in the Independent. One extract goes: “…When he believes a story is running out of control or that – the worst…

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Should swing be worked out from these – not the result?

Should swing be worked out from these – not the result?

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The 2005 final polls: C33% L38% LD23% – MORI C33% L38% LD22% – HARRIS C32% L37% LD25% – YouGov C32% L38% LD22% – ICM C32% L38% LD21% – Populus C33% L36% LD23% – NOP C33% L37% LD21% – BPIX C31% L39% LD23% – COMRES The 2005 result: C33.2% L36.2% LD22.7% Would this factor in likely Labour polling over-statement? In the past week while we’ve been putting the focus on what lead would produce a majority couple of PBers have emailed…

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So who’s winning the death tax skirmish?

So who’s winning the death tax skirmish?

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How many of these will there be before the day? I love politics in the raw. It’s all a spectator sport when it’s how parties and leaders handle issues and who is gaining the advantage. We dissect it here to the nth degree and I for one relish every minute. So today’s spat between Dave and Gord was entirely predictable. Yesterday the poster featured above started going up and Labour had to respond fast. What’s being attacked, that a charge…

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Was the AV vote designed to put Clegg on the spot?

Was the AV vote designed to put Clegg on the spot?

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Did Brown want the yellows to be favouring the reds? Just reflecting on last night’s commons vote on the alternative vote system I wonder whether the received opinion is wrong about Brown’s motives. The general presumption is that Labour hopes that Clegg and his party will now look at Labour more favourably in the unlikely event of a hung parliament. But hasn’t the aim been much more short-term than that? For the form of what’s described as “electoral reform” that’s…

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Will we ever do “negative” as effectively as this?

Will we ever do “negative” as effectively as this?

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Could the reds or blues produce a version for the final week? With all the talk of negative ads today let’s look back five and half years to see how it’s really done. Could we get something similar here? Obviously we have PPBs not paid for TV political advertising but it’s the message that’s central. What about “could you trust this man with……his finger on the nuclear”/saving the world from a banking disaster….etc” with references to secretaries and chairs or…

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What does this say about Labour’s AV plan?

What does this say about Labour’s AV plan?

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PoliticsHome Is a referendum promise really going to help them? The above is one of the findings from a PoliticsHome poll on Labour’s plan to legislate for a post general election referendum on the alternative vote system. Although I’m not totally convinced about the wording of the poll questions I think we can draw something from the findings – voters are highly cynical of such a move thirteen years after it first appeared as a Labour manifesto commitment. The damning…

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