Or will “BullyGate” boost the blues? In an hour or so we’ll get the YouGov daily poll for the Sun and the Tories must be hoping that it’ll show a reversal in the trend of recent weeks. The fieldwork started at 5pm last night and finished at 5pm this evening – so it’s pretty up to date – and is likely to have Labour benefiting much less from the after-glow of their Warwick gathering at the weekend. It will also…
CON 37 % (39) LAB 30% (30) LD 20% (20) But why is Labour not getting the benefit? (This piece has had to be hacked about because the paper’s website reported the wrong fieldwork dates. Sorry folks – blame the Guardian) The February poll by ICM for the Guardian is just out and shows a decline of three points in the Tory share with Labour and the Lib Dems holding firm.The big increase is the three point rise in “others”….
CON SPREAD RANGES 342 – 347 Sporting Index 340 – 345 ExtraBet 346 – 349.5 Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 218 – 223 Sporting Index 220 – 225 ExtraBet 213 – 218 Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 Sporting Index 54 – 57 ExtraBet 53.5 – 54 Betfair Line market This is the first PB Index for nine days and it shows only a four seat drop in the projected Tory majority since February 13. The…
Will we have to wait until Tuesday night? At the moment the big unknown is how this is all going down with the voters. The one certain element that Ms Pratt has added to the equation is that it has been made into a much bigger story. Is Labour being hurt or is Labour benefiting? We should see two new polls tonight – the monthly ICM survey for the Guardian and the YouGov daily survey for the Sun. Fieldwork for…
The Sun Is this a narrative-turning story? For Mr Cameron of Notting Hill it’s been a pretty bleak start to 2010. Nothing seems to have gone right as the Tories seemed to have moved from one gaffe to another. Fairly or unfairly the media narrative was about the party and his leadership and doubts had just started to seep in over the election outcome. But how things have changed in the past 24 hours. The publication of Andrew Rawnsley’s book…
Continuation thread Please do not make defamatory comments about Ms Pratt. Mike Smithson
Does Rawnsley add to the case against the UNS? Tucked away in the Observer print edition of the Rawnsley book there are a couple of revealing passages which underline the case we’ve been making strongly on PB over the past fortnight on the Uniform National Swing – the simple way of estimating what given poll numbers mean in terms of commons seats at the election. On September 22nd 2007 Brown and his aides received a presentation on a marginals poll…
CON 38% (40) LAB 30% (29) LD 20% (21) And is Labour winning the Muslim vote? There’s a new ComRes poll which was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday shortly after the Gordon Brown TV extravaganza on ITV. It’s been commissioned by the think-tank, Theos, which as well as finding out about voting intentions also looks at the question of religious beliefs and the coming general election. The headline voting intentions are broadly in line with the pattern that we see…