ICM has the lead down to 7 percent

ICM has the lead down to 7 percent

CON 37 % (39)
LAB 30% (30)
LD 20% (20)

But why is Labour not getting the benefit?

(This piece has had to be hacked about because the paper’s website reported the wrong fieldwork dates. Sorry folks – blame the Guardian)

The February poll by ICM for the Guardian is just out and shows a decline of three points in the Tory share with Labour and the Lib Dems holding firm.The big increase is the three point rise in “others”.

The comparisons above are with the last published ICM poll that was in the Sunday Telegraph eight days ago and NOT the last ICM poll in the Guardian.

The fieldwork was carried out from Friday until Sunday – a period that saw favourable coverage for Labour until the Rawnsley revelations started coming out late Saturday evening. Labour, of course, was getting massive attention for its Warwick gathering.

So a really bad poll for the Tories though will be some relief that the drop did not go to Labour – particularly as the polling took place at a time when Brown’s party was getting extensive coverage.

Quite why the others are up is not clear but UKIP and the Greens on 3% each with the BNP on 2%.

With seven percent margin it would be touch and go whether there would be a hung parliament.

Mike Smithson

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