Will he ever get a better opportunity? With the Michael Ashcroft story on top of Labour’s stunning progress in the polls surely the time is ripe for Brown to take the gamble and call a snap election? If he doesn’t won’t he look back at this week and see it as an opportunity lost? Such a move would be daring and decisive which of itself could give him a poll boost. Will he do it? He should but probably won’t….
Has YouGov done punters a favour? If there’s one thing that the declining Tory ratings, topped by the YouGov 2% lead, have done it has been to change the narrative. For what looked only two months ago like a foregone conclusion can now be reported as a real race again. The prospect of Brown’s Labour coming on top with most seats has shaken everything up and I wonder whether without it Cameron’s latest “most important speech of his career” would…
Daily Telegraph Will it settle Tory nerves after the narrowing polls? With the opinion polls narrowing significantly in recent days, David Cameron gave what will be his final address to a Conservative conference ahead of the general election, telling his audience that: “It is an election that we have to win because our country is in a complete mess and it is our patriotic duty to turn it around and give this country a better future… I think everyone in…
Does the Guardian make a habit of this? Thanks to ChristinaD on the previous thread for reminding us that the Guardian has form for eulogising over a Prime Minister a few weeks after entering Number 10. Today’s Martin Kettle column on David Cameron follows in the tradition set by the above piece from August 2007 shortly after Gordon Brown became Prime Minister. “Has any Prime Minister had a more difficult first month?” the headline read inviting the obvious response –…
In a world where politicians continually try and rebrand themselves and define their image in the public’s mind, and pay agencies a lot of money to attempt it on their behalf, last week we saw one of the most successful rebrandings for years. It is commonly presumed that the public saw Alistair Darling as a bit dull, inoffensive, but useful, like magnolia paint or carrier bags. Well, that was on Monday. By Wednesday his “forces of hell†quote had changed…
Did Brown’s party recover 30+ seats? In its post mortem of the 1992 election Labour identified a key weakness which it sought to address in all the following four elections – the critical importance of the final week. For its only then that many voters start to focus on what they’ll do and when a focused get out the vote message can be most effective. For the 1997 election the party created a special final week team. Whether they did…
? ? ? ? How did the lead drop from 6% to 2% between editions? The massive confusion over what the poll numbers actually were that we saw on the thread overnight is now becoming clear. For after the NOTW reported the 2% gap there were several posts saying the Sunday Times had it at 6%. But the Sunday Times poll findings changed between editions as those who have been watching BBC1 have been told. In the earlier ones it…
Is it healthy that one firm should be so dominant? Consider this:- The last voting intention survey from a firm other than YouGov was from ComRes and completed its fieldwork on June 27th – nearly two and a half weeks ago. There have been thirteen national YouGov polls since then – all but one of for News International which has an exclusivity arrangement with the firm for national papers. The Daily Telegraph has not had a regular pollster since February…