Notice how others are large – like Angus Reid The new kid on the polling block, Opinium, has published its historic polls and it is interesting to track how it compares with everybody else. The striking feature for me is that it consistently has a high share for others – very much in line with the PB/Angus Reid polls. Maybe it’s something about online polling? A disappointment is that it makes no attempt to politically weight its samples. This probably…
Populus marginals poll (Times) F/W Mar 7 2005 CONSERVATIVES 38% 31.5 LABOUR 38% 45.3 LIB DEMS ??% ?? LAB to CON swing 6.7% — Is a hung parliament now looking more likely? We’ve now got details of the Times Populus poll for March which is not a national voting intention survey but one that is focussed entirely on Tory’s targets from Labour numbers 51 – 150. It’s assumed that the first 50 will go anyway. There’s no data in the…
YouGov daily poll: The Sun 08/03/10 Prev CONSERVATIVES 39% 38 LABOUR 34% 33 LIB DEMS 16% 17 LAB to CON swing 4% 4% So YouGov continues to show a Labour share that is higher than other pollsters and the 34% means that Labour is hanging onto seventeen out eighteen of those who backed Blair’s party in 2005. That is certainly not supported by the splits linked to past vote reported by other firms. The Tory share is broadly in line…
“Opinium” for the Express 08/03/10 2005 CONSERVATIVES 37% 33.2 LABOUR 30% 36.2 LIB DEMS 16% 22.7 LAB to CON swing 5% ?? This is a new one on me and needs further investigating. According to reports “The poll was taken by Opinium from 5th to 8th March using what is described as “their research panel†of 1960 individuals.” I wonder whether they poll the same 1960 individuals again and again? We don’t know – but I’m sure all will become…
Will tonight’s poll be in ICM or YouGov territory? After a weekend which has seen two very different views from the pollsters we are due the March Populus survey for the Times this evening. The big question is whether it will have figures in the YouGov family territory (down to 2% with YouGov/BPIX) or that of ICM with its Tory 40% share and 9% lead? It’s hard to say – at the start of February the firm had 40-30-20. Mike…
Ipsos-MORI What does this say about potential turnout? Two of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been political polling in the UK for longer than any other firm with a website that has a mine of information going back decades. Another good thing is that the firm’s non-voting intention questions are generally very well drawn up and they use the same form time and time again. Take this table reproduced above with responses over nearly a quarter…
“Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..” “Well” “Badly“ +/- Brown 36% (36) 60% (58) -2% Cameron 48% (50) 44% (39) -7% Clegg 43% (42) 31% (28) -2% Are the Tories right to make Brown the issue? This is the second of my planned weekly threads on what many pundits believe are the best guide to forecasting general elections – the leader approval ratings. The comparisons above are the net change as compared with last week. These are…
Times online What do these say about hung parliaments and the LDs? Reproduced above are a couple of findings from today’s Sunday Times YouGov poll which I think might have signficance. The first is a form of forced choice question where the responses are Lib Dem supporters are the most interesting. Just comparing their answers then support for Labour is just ahead of the Tories – even though more of the would prefer a Tory outright win than a Labour…