Populus marginals poll has the Tories just short

Populus marginals poll has the Tories just short

Populus marginals poll (Times) F/W Mar 7 2005
LABOUR 38% 45.3
LIB DEMS ??% ??
LAB to CON swing 6.7%

Is a hung parliament now looking more likely?

We’ve now got details of the Times Populus poll for March which is not a national voting intention survey but one that is focussed entirely on Tory’s targets from Labour numbers 51 – 150. It’s assumed that the first 50 will go anyway. There’s no data in the overnight reports for the Lib Dems.

With all marginals polling you have to compare with what happened in the equivalent seats at the 2005 general election and compute the change in the form of a swing. That works out at 6.7% or enough for Cameron’s party to win 97 Labour seats.

On top of that they’d hope to pick up some Lib Dem seats but it’s hard on these figures to get to the winning threshold of 325.

What we don’t know is whether the party is performing disproportionately better in the key battle-grounds than elsewhere for there is no up-to-date Populus survey with which to compare. That is a great pity.

The Populus poll is very similar to last week’s YouGov marginals survey which had the swing at 6.5%

It’s been computed by Anthony Wells at UKPR that this is the equivalent of a 10 point Tory national lead.

All this is going to provide real heart for Labour supporters and add to the jitters at Cameron towers. It’s also going to make the coming campaign that bit more exciting.

  • In the betting as at 2.30am the spread prices at SportingIndex still pointed to an overall majority of more than 20 seats. I’ve sold the Tories at 333 and bought Labour at 235 seats. The best “no overall majority” price I can find is the 7/4 at Ladbrokes. My guess is that both these markets will move during the day.
  • Mike Smithson

    Comments are closed.