Should we be paying more attention to the dons?

Should we be paying more attention to the dons?

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An invitation to participants to do a PB guest slot Tomorrow an academic conference starts in Manchester on forecasting the general election. A series of papers are going to be presented and all of them, as far as I can gather, suggest that there will be a hung parliament. I’ve already invited Matt Lebo of Stony Brook University in New York to do a guest slot on his model that seeks to predict outcomes from from prime ministerial approval ratings….

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Looking back to YouGov’s 2008 Boris triumph

Looking back to YouGov’s 2008 Boris triumph

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YouGov May 1 2008 But was it based on a different weighting structure? Nobody can dispute that Boris Johnson’s election as London mayor on May 2nd 2008 was a sensational achievement for YouGov. For the second mayoral election in a row they got the final result correct to within one percent at a time when they were completely out of line with all the other pollsters. I, for one, made a fair bit of money betting on the YouGov view…

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But the Tories drop a point in the daily poll

But the Tories drop a point in the daily poll

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YouGov Daily poll Mar 17 Mar 16 CONSERVATIVES 36% 37% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 20% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 3.5% This has not come from my usual source but I am told that it is what is being reported in the print edition of tomorrow’s Sun. So, once again, a very different view of the world from the two online pollsters who both operate with polling panels. We have discussed at length before the possible…

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Labour still down at 26pc with Angus Reid

Labour still down at 26pc with Angus Reid

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Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 17 Mar 11 CONSERVATIVES 39% 39% LABOUR 26% 26% LIB DEMS 21% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% 8% Lib Dems up three as others slump The latest in the exclusive Politicalbetting/Angus Reid polling series is just out and shows one big major change – a slump in support for “others” to 14%. This is the lowest it has ever been and brings AR more into line with other firms. Alas for Brown…

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Will this Labour effort persuade Lib Dems to switch?

Will this Labour effort persuade Lib Dems to switch?

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Will rubbishing Clegg encourage tactical voting? Being identified on both the Labour and Tory central databases as a Lib Dem in a highly marginal seat I’m getting a lot of attention from both big parties – this latest, an expensive postcard, came in the mail this morning. Squeezing known LDs is clearly a key strategy but I just wonder whether this approach is right. To me it shows simplistic thinking which might look smart at Labour HQ but is not…

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Will Cameron get pulled up if he raises UNITE’s funding?

Will Cameron get pulled up if he raises UNITE’s funding?

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What if Bercow does what he did yesterday? With the BA strike getting closer then Cameron is surely going to raise it with Mr. Brown at PMQs today. But what happens if he touches on the Labour party’s close links with the union involved, UNITE. Could Speaker Bercow do what he sought to do yesterday and try to prevent this from being raised – his point being that questions should be about government and not party business. For in theory…

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