YouGov Daily poll Mar 19 Mar 18 CONSERVATIVES 38% 36% LABOUR 31% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 3.5% So what are we to make of it all? A second poll tonight, from YouGov for the Sunday Times, is reported by Sky to have an increase in the Tory lead with Cameron’s party moving to 38% while Labour is down to 31%. So two very different trends from the two pollsters which gamblers seem…
ICM ICM News of the World Mar 19 Mar 14 CONSERVATIVES 38% 40% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 19% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4.5% 6% Does this make NOM more likely? A new News of the World ICM poll brings bad news for the Tories after what appeared to have been a very good week for them. The moves, all within the margin of error, has the gap down top just six points. Both the Tories and…
Doesn’t the uniform make him look better than he is? Launched this morning is the latest Tory poster which seeks to link Brown with UNITE with the BA strike. Politically it’s clearly the right thing to do – but has the party made a cock-up in the way it’s executed. To my mind the cap and the uniform and the UNITE logo appear pretty smart and really make Brown look quite good. The idea of Brown as “captain of the…
Will Cameron be the winner of the BA and rail actions? Most national strikes have a political dimension and all involving the transport sector do. They impact on millions of voters and how those individuals view the players could determine not just who ‘wins’ or ‘loses’ the strikes but who wins or loses the election too. The biggest short-term losers in a transport strike are invariably the public, so the blame game becomes all important. Even if aircraft keep flying,…
How would the vote split? Lots of talk today about how many candidates the “others” – GREEN/UKIP/BNP – will actually have standing in the election. UKIP looks as though it will have in excess of 500 but the other two parties are probably going to fall short by quite a distance. With this segment running quite high in a number of polls the question is how would this go if potential voters have not got someone to support in their…
Click to play Is a post-election challenge now likely? One story that really has not been given the coverage it perhaps should was this moment in the commons on Tuesday afternoon when Speaker Bercow sought to prevent Tory front-bencher, Theresa Villiers, from raising Labour’s links with UNITE during a question on the BA strike. Paul Waugh of the Standard has been right on top of the story and writes of Cameron lunch in the Commons Dining Room “….. he was…
Harris poll for The Metro Mar 16 Mar 9 CONSERVATIVES 36% 37% LABOUR 28% 29% LIB DEMS 18% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 5.5% UKIP/BNP/GRN all move up The gap between the Tories and Labour remains the same in the latest poll by Harris Interactive for the Metro but both main parties slip a point. It should be noted that fieldwork for the poll took place over seven days – from Wednesday last week to Tuesday this…
An example of what’s been happening But WHY are Labour panellists less keen on taking part?? The head of YouGov Peter Kellner has outlined changes that are being made to the firm’s methodology for those on its panel listed as “Labour Loyal” identifiers – those who told the pollster this is the party they identify with and that is how they voted at the 2005 general election. As has been highlighted here before the on-line pollster appears to have had…