But YouGov now has a bigger lead than ICM

But YouGov now has a bigger lead than ICM

YouGov Daily poll Mar 19 Mar 18
LABOUR 31% 32%
LIB DEMS 19% 20%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 3.5%

So what are we to make of it all?

A second poll tonight, from YouGov for the Sunday Times, is reported by Sky to have an increase in the Tory lead with Cameron’s party moving to 38% while Labour is down to 31%.

So two very different trends from the two pollsters which gamblers seem to take most notice of. The YouGov poll is slightly newer and might be taking more account of the BA/UNITE dispute

There’s also the possibility that this week’s YouGov methodology change might have had an impact. My understanding is that the effect could be tapered because it involves YouGov inviting more “Labour Loyal” to take part and we’ll have to wait for the data before seeing the impact. Certainly in the last YouGov poll Labour Loyal had to be weighted up.

It’s very hard to say – but both polls suggest that it’s going to be quite a challenge for the Tories to get that overall majority.

Next week, I understand, we will see the start of regular polls of the marginals from one of the leading pollsters. That might give us a clearer idea of the outcome.

Mike Smithson

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