Welcome back – we’ve missed you It’s been quite a long time since we’ve published anything from Marf – PB’s cartoonist who built up her reputation in Canada and on the Evening Standard. She’s been involved in a major publishing project which is now coming to an end – and I’m hoping that she can apply her acute observations and scathing satire to the political scene in the UK as we go into the election campaign. If anybody wants to…
Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 324-329 (-2) 229-234 (+2) 56-59 (nc) Extrabet 319-324 (-8) 234-239 (+8) 58-61 (nc) Betfair 327.5-331.5 231,5-234.5 54.5-55 Mike Smithson
Won’t it hurt those least likely to benefit? “90% of the country to be given broadband access, enabling faster internet services, to be funded by a 50p a month tax on those who have phone lines” Share Good idea 39% Bad idea 49% Don’t know 12% PoliticsHome budget poll March 26 There’s an interesting negative response in the Politics Home budget poll to Labour’s plan to fund the expansion of broadband by putting a tax of 50p a month on…
Who’ll be the most “creative” with the use of numbers? With tactical voting looking set to play a crucial and possibly decisive role in the coming battle this could be the general election of the bar chart. These are deployed by campaigners of all colours to persuade supporters of other candidates in specific seats that their choice does not stand a chance and that they offer the ONLY WAY OF BEATING/STOPPING XYX in that constituency. Mostly the appeal will be…
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 25 Mar 24 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 33% 34% LIB DEMS 18% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 2.5% Mike Smithson
Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 326-331 (-6) 227-232 (+4) 56-59 (-1) Extrabet 327-332 (-1) 226-231 (-4) 58-61 (+2) Betfair 330-334.5 231-235 55-56.5 Has market sentiment finally changed? After a period when the commons seat betting markets have been more towards the Tories than the polls we’ve now seen some movement and the Tory sell prices of both SPIN and ExtraBet are just above the critical 325 seat threshold. It’s been the same on the overall majority markets where Ladbrokes…
Ipsos-MORI Will voters act differently if they know? Just catching up with the latest MORI poll of the marginals which came out just as the Matt Lebo thread was starting. The survey took place in seats where Labour held leads of between 10% and 18% at the 2005 general election and the poll topline of C37-L41 represents a 5% swing to the Tories. With marginals’ polls you always have to look at the baseline from last time and work back…
A guest slot by Matthew Lebo, Associate Professor of Political Science, Stony Brook University Academics make electoral forecasts that differ from those of poll-watchers. First, we use historic data and statistical methods to make our predictions, not simply the latest polls. Second, in addition to accuracy, we also want to learn something about the fundamentals that move voters and decide elections. Third, we want to know more than how people would vote if an election were held today – we…