Should this new range of markets be voided? Thanks to Aaron a couple of days or go for pointing up the wording that Betfair is using to define majority in a new range of markets that have just been put up. The wording used is this:- “What will be the Conservative Party’s overall majority of parliamentary seats as a result of the next UK general election? This market refers to how many seats in excess of 325 the Conservative Party…
What are his chances in the Battle for Buckingham This is the “Flipper Dolphin” who is seeking to tail John Bercow wherever he travels during the campaign in his Buckingham constituency to highlight the speaker’s record on expenses. The purpose is to remind voters that their outgoing MP is what was became known as “a flipper” during the expenses scandal. Bercow is trying to fight back by claiming that he has one of the best records in the house. This…
Can we make sense of the differing polls? So a night of sharply contrasting polling and as PB threads have shown people seem to opt for the numbers that most fit with their desired outcome That’s inevitable. What we are seeing are the products of different methodologies and I’ve have points to pick with all of them. My problem with the latest batch is that a large part of the fieldwork period covered Monday when the news was dominated by…
ComRes: ITV News/Independent Apr 12 Apr 11 CONSERVATIVES 36% 37% LABOUR 31% 30% LIB DEMS 19% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4% 5% There’s a new ComRes poll for ITV New/Independent that sees just one point movements in all the parties but for the Tories the gap closes to an uncomfortable 5 points. Breaking down the voting intention figures by geography, ComRes found that in the South East the two main parties are fairly close with Conservatives on…
Populus – Times Apr 12 Apr 7 CONSERVATIVES 36% 39% LABOUR 33% 32% LIB DEMS 21% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 5% A Populus poll for tomorrow’s Times has the Tory lead over Labour cut to just 3%, which would certainly be hung parliament territory if repeated at the election and could well see Labour as the largest party. Other figures of note in the article are that Lib Dem supporters would prefer a deal with Labour over…
PB Angus Reid Apr 12 Apr 11 CONSERVATIVES 38% 37% LABOUR 28% 26% LIB DEMS 22% 22% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 7% And the others total is the smallest yet from the firm There’s a new poll for Politicalbetting out from Angus Reid that sees Labour move to its highest point from the firm and others drop to their lowest level. What seems to be happening, and we’ve seen it elsewhere, is the the squeeze is being…
How much are local campaigns being affected? Talking to people across the parties in the past few days I’m getting a powerful impression that where the incumbent MP was singled out as prominent trougher then the mood of the electorate is very different. This matters most where the MP, like Jacqui Smith, is seeking to be re-elected but it’s also impacting on those candidates who are seeking to replace MPs who’ve stood aside. I’m told, for instance, that the mood…
PoliticsHome: YG aggregated regional data Apr 4 -11 Do the regional splits point to an overall Tory majority? Above is a table prepared for PoliticsHome by YouGov showing their aggregated data from a week’s polling broken down into the regional splits. What matters is the right hand block showing the variations from the 2005 result. To work out the swing in a particular region add the Tory plus figure to the Labour minus one and divide by two. Three trends…