Did the move to the Lib Dems start much earlier? It is almost becoming a short-hand to describe this election. The two party fight became a three-sided contest at 10pm on Thursday April 15th when the first polling reaction to the first leaders’ debate had Nick Clegg winning by a mile. No doubt this is how the dramatic Election of 2010 will go down in political history – but is it actually true? Didn’t the move to the yellow team…
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Angus Reid/Politicalbetting Apr 19 Apr 12 CONSERVATIVES 32% 38% LIB DEMS 32% 22% LABOUR 24% 28% And Labour fall 8 points behind. Fieldwork for the first PB/Angus Reid voting intention poll since the Thursday debates was completed this afternoon and shows sharp drops on last week for Labour and the Tories and a double digit increase in the Lib Dem share. This is the first poll today that has data from today and underlines the fact that the move to…
ICM Guardian Apr 18 Apr 15 CONSERVATIVES 33% 34% LIB DEMS 30% 28% LABOUR 28% 29% And is Labour losing more to Clegg than the Tories? So here we are – another poll confirming the big trend. The Lib Dem surge has survived the weekend and is showing no sign of abating. It really is beginning to look as that there has been a step-change in opinion and this is taken place barely two and a half weeks before election…
Could this affect Commons seats projections? Most people with an interest in politics and election outcomes are familiar with the term – Uniform National Swing but there is often a lot of confusion on how the numbers are made up? For a key element is that the swing is not applied proportionately in each seat – but according to the number in percentage points change that, say, a new poll represents. So based on the latest 33% poll share the…
What will the next seventeen days bring? Our chart shows the dramatic movement in best betting prices on a Tory majority over the past extraordinary week – a period when the views of the election outcome from punters and pundits alike changed so dramatically. As someone suggested on an overnight thread – the Lib Dems have gone viral and we’ve no idea where this will end. Certainly the prospects for the Tory majority look a lot thinner this morning. For…
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YouGov daily poll – Sun Apr 18 Apr 17 LIB DEMS 33% 29% CONSERVATIVES 32% 33% LABOUR 26% 30% Labour take a big hit as the yellow surge continues With all the speculation that the move to the yellows would fizzle out quickly the latest YouGov daily poll continues the good news for Clegg and his team The Lib Dems have now edged about the Tories while at the same time there’s been a sharp drop in the Labour vote…