ICM Guardian Apr 25 Apr 23 CONSERVATIVES 33% 35% LIB DEMS 30% 31% LABOUR 28% 26% But the LDs remain in the 30s The first of tonight’s polls is out and had good news for Mr. Brown. Labour have moved up from the weekend ICM poll while both the Tories and Lib Dems have dropped a point. This is all margin of error stuff but it will give heart to the red team as it seeks to avoid finishing in…
London Evening Standard How the LDs are progressing in London This is how the paper is reporting its new YouGov poll tonight:- “Nick Clegg’s surge is rewriting London’s election map, an exclusive poll for the Standard reveals today. It points to the Liberal Democrats snatching three seats from Labour and denying David Cameron victory in three target seats crucial to his hopes of an outright majority. The numbers are above and show that what’s happening nationally is being repeated in…
The piece by Anthony Wells on postal voting and opinion polls on UKPR is a good reminder that things can now get a bit complex given that perhaps one in five of all votes will be made by post. What happens when the pollster calls or someone fills in an internet form when they have already voted? Almost all the firms adapt their voting intention question to take into account this possibility but they cannot report them separately. As Anthony…
SkyNews What does this do to “Vote Yellow get Brown”? In the eleven days since Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats emerged as a force at the first debate the blue team’s main line of attack has been “Vote Yellow get Brown”. Given the ongoing unpopularity of the Prime Minister and the desire for change being shown in the polls this had a lot of potency which would have dominated the Tories’ final week’s campaigning. That has been knocked on the head…
This is a regular feature which will run every Sunday night up until polling day, to include the last set of figures from each pollster, as well as the current seat spreads from the betting markets, and also international updates. The pollsters Last poll from each pollster Con Lab LD Oth Lead YouGov 25 Apr 34 28 30 8 Con 4 BPIX 24 Apr 34 26 30 10 Con 4 Ipsos-MORI 23 Apr 36 30 23 11 Con 6 ComRes…
YouGov Daily Poll – Sun Apr 25 Apr 24 CONSERVATIVES 34% 35% LIB DEMS 30% 28% LABOUR 28% 27% What’s probably going to be the only poll out tonight, YouGov for the Sun, has some good news for the yellow teamafter a few days when its share with the pollster was on the decline. It’s now back at 30% while the Tories are down a notch to 34%. Labour also see an increase. While this is all margin of error…
Majority betting NOM CON LAB OTH/LD Ladbrokes 4/6 11/8 16/1 20/1 Political Smarkets 72% 37% 10% 10% There have been rumours about tonight’s YouGov poll but we’ve been caught before. We’ll wait until we get some authoritative source we can link to. Mike Smithson
Top 5 postal voting seats 2005 Postal ballots issued LAB-LD swing required 2010 Newcastle North 45.4% 8.5% Stevenage 45% Rushcliffe 39.9% Newcastle Central 36.7% 11.5% Newcastle East 35.4% 10.5% National average 12.1% …is this why Cleggie headed first for Newcastle? I was very struck on Friday with the oddness of Clegg’s travel schedule on the day after the Sky News debate in Bristol. On the face of it you would have thought that he’d have headed out to some of…