Conservatives lead by 4, Labour & Lib Dems tied ComRes/ITV-The Independent Apr 26 Apr 25 CONSERVATIVES 33% 32% LIB DEMS 29% 31% LABOUR 29% 28% Can we be careful not to discuss postal voting poll subsets as this may be illegal – thanks. Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk The UK game will be released shortly
Conservative lead 8 with Populus, 4 with YouGov Labour up to second place with YouGov Populus/The Times Apr 27 Apr 20 CONSERVATIVES 36% 32% LIB DEMS 28% 31% LABOUR 27% 28% YouGov/The Sun Apr 27 Apr 26 CONSERVATIVES 33% 33% LIB DEMS 28% 29% LABOUR 29% 28% Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk The UK game will be released shortly
Would this be the key question as to What Happens Next? Let’s suppose that the General Election produces the hung parliament the polls and betting markets are currently indicating is the likeliest outcome. What happens next is partly the consequence of the numbers game – how many MP’s and votes each party won – but also how the various players react to events and to each other. In politics, as allegedly elsewhere, possession is nine-tenths of the law and Gordon…
538.com Nate Silver’s view of the Uniform National Swing Nate Silver, the elections expert behind the renowned US polling site, Fivethreeeight.com, has been taking a close interest in the mathematics of the UK’s uniform nation swing mechanism for converting poll shares into seats won. He argues: “…. these forecasts are based on a questionable assumption and may understate, perhaps substantially, the magnitude of gains that might be realized by the Tories and by the LibDems. In particular, they are based…
Populus May 2005 Can we expect shockers like this from 2005? At the big pre-election polling conference at the Royal Academy in January 2010 the boss of ICM, Martin Boon, touched on the challenges for phone pollsters of carrying out surveys over bank holiday weekends and referred to what had happened before the last election. For fieldwork for the most infamous bank holiday poll, the one reproduced above from Populus, took place over the Saturday, Sunday and Monday before the…
ComRes: ITV News/Indy Apr 25 Apr 24 CONSERVATIVES 32% 34% LIB DEMS 31% 29% LABOUR 28% 28% Another pollster has the gap narrowing As the Guardian has broken the embargo these figures are now in the public domain. What is the final poll for tonight has the blues dropping but shows the yellows moving to their best ever position with the pollster. Looking at the detail 21% of Labour supporters and 8% of Conservative supporters at the 2005 General Election…
YouGov: The Sun Apr 26 Apr 25 CONSERVATIVES 33% 34% LIB DEMS 29% 30% LABOUR 28% 28% Tonight’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun is now out and is in line with the trend that we saw from ICM of the gap getting closer. These figures will surely add to the concern amongst Tories about their chances of winning the election. Still to come – ComRes. Mike Smithson
ICM Guardian Apr 25 Apr 23 CONSERVATIVES 33% 35% LIB DEMS 30% 31% LABOUR 28% 26% But the LDs remain in the 30s The first of tonight’s polls is out and had good news for Mr. Brown. Labour have moved up from the weekend ICM poll while both the Tories and Lib Dems have dropped a point. This is all margin of error stuff but it will give heart to the red team as it seeks to avoid finishing in…