The money goes on NOM
Bestbetting Does it all depend on the Yellow-Blue battles? If this was a straight fight between the Tories and Labour then there would be a strong case for saying back a Tory majority. The polls seem to be suggesting that the blues are doing well enough in these encounters to win. But in three other groups of seats it’s hard to come to that conclusion. CON efforts to take LD seats: The latest polling, by Crosby-Textor, for the Telegraph suggests…
Tonight’s Marf cartoon and ComRes
The gap moves down to 8 with ComRes ComRes: ITV News/Indy May 2 May 1 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LIB DEMS 26% 25% LABOUR 29% 28% To find out more about Marf’s work click here. Mike Smithson
Meanwhile punters are confused…
Bestbetting And tonight’s YouGov poll YouGov – the Sun May 3 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 35% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 29% LABOUR 28% 28% The chart shows the changes over the past 24 hours on the overall majority markets at the betting exchanges. Just look at how it has chopped and changed as gamblers have reacted to different bits of polling news – some pointing in one direction and some in another. No doubt it will get worse tonight with ComRes…
Labour get three point boost from Opinium
Opinium – D. Express May 3 Apr 26 CONSERVATIVES 33% 34% LIB DEMS 27% 28% LABOUR 28% 25% Are we seeing a last minute recovery? There’s a new poll out from Opinium which sees a three point jump in the Labour share and follows a period which saw the final debate and, of course, “Bigotgateâ€. Although the firm is new this will give real heart to the red team as they try to fend off what seemed like a certain…
MORI marginals poll points to Tory majority of 2
The final Reuters/Ipsos MORI marginals poll, is just out and points to a 7% LAB-CON swing which would just be enough to secure an overall majority. That could be just enough to put them into power without the need for support from other parties. More can be found here. Mike Smithson
Brown trails even further in the leadership ratings
“Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ..” Well Badly Net Change BROWN 33% (38) 63% (57) -30 -9 CAMERON 58% (50) 36% (37) +22 +9 CLEGG 79% (77) 14% (14) +65 +2 YouGov Sunday Times Is this where “Bigotgate” is taking its toll? YouGov has now published the full data from its Sunday Times poll so we can see the detail of what many, including myself, regard as a good guide to what will happen in the election….
Harry Hayfield’s Guide to election night and Friday
(Timings are based on 2005) 22:00 The 2010 BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is published. This will be the first indication of how the country has voted. Throughout the day at 130 selected polling stations NOP and MORI will have been conducted interviews with one in every ten voters as they leave. The vast majority of the locations will have been used in 2005 and a team of academic psephologists will analyse what’s coming in focusing on moves from the previous election….