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Year Post-war elections with a change of government 1951 Outgoing LAB government had lost an effective majority. The Tories won outright 1964 Incoming Labour government with minuscule majority. Second election eighteen months later 1970 Outgoing Labour government with working majority replaced by Tory government also with a working majority 1974F Incoming Labour minority government – second election held seven months later 1979 Outgoing LAB government had lost a working majority. The Tories won outright 1997 Outgoing CON government had lost…

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The gap moves down to 8 with ComRes ComRes: ITV News/Indy May 2 May 1 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LIB DEMS 26% 25% LABOUR 29% 28% To find out more about Marf’s work click here. Mike Smithson

Bestbetting And tonight’s YouGov poll YouGov – the Sun May 3 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 35% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 29% LABOUR 28% 28% The chart shows the changes over the past 24 hours on the overall majority markets at the betting exchanges. Just look at how it has chopped and changed as gamblers have reacted to different bits of polling news – some pointing in one direction and some in another. No doubt it will get worse tonight with ComRes…

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Opinium – D. Express May 3 Apr 26 CONSERVATIVES 33% 34% LIB DEMS 27% 28% LABOUR 28% 25% Are we seeing a last minute recovery? There’s a new poll out from Opinium which sees a three point jump in the Labour share and follows a period which saw the final debate and, of course, “Bigotgate”. Although the firm is new this will give real heart to the red team as they try to fend off what seemed like a certain…

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The final Reuters/Ipsos MORI marginals poll, is just out and points to a 7% LAB-CON swing which would just be enough to secure an overall majority. That could be just enough to put them into power without the need for support from other parties. More can be found here. Mike Smithson