Take the Hills 7/4 William Hillhave got a great hung parliament bet that looks really good. The firm is offering 7/4 against “David Cameron (or any other Tory politician) to be Prime Minister in Hung Parliament in 2010”. Given that even if the Tories are short they are still going to be a long way ahead of the party in second place and the chances must be that Cameron would lead a minority or coalition government. Mike Smithson
YouGov London – E. Standard May 5 2005 CONSERVATIVES 36% 32% LABOUR 31% 39% LIB DEMS 27% 22% After last night’s daily poll for the Sun that had Clegg’s party shedding four points to its lowest position for weeks a new YouGov poll for London has them down just one point on last week’s poll – at 27% percent. The Tory and Labour shares are unchanged on the week. As I’ve argued the success or not of the Lib Dems…
Guardian But could this change with the final polls? Almost every day for the past four weeks I’ve been producing a “tip of the day” for Guardian. Looking back some have been winners already – the TV audience for the first debate and which of the three would get the highest numbers. Some look like losers now but seemed a good idea at the time. One which I think will turn out to be profitable is the turnout being above…
YouGov regional aggregates with changes on last time YG Regional Aggregates Con Lab LD NAT North East 22 (+2) 44 (-9) 29 (+6) – North West 30 (+1) 34 (-11) 28 (+7) – Yorks & Humber 32 (+3) 30 (-14) 30 (+9) – East Midlands 34 (-3) 29 (-10) 29 (+11) – West Midlands 38 (+3) 30 (-9) 23 (+4) – East of England 44 (+1) 21 (-9) 27 (+5) – London 36 (+4) 31 (-8) 26 (+4) – South…
No change from ComRes, but 38% may change mind before voting ComRes: ITV News/Independent May 3 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 29% 29% LIB DEMS 26% 26%  The press release from ITV News/The Independent says: “This poll gives the Conservatives 294 seats – 32 short of an overall majority – Labour 251 seats and Liberal Democrats 74. These voting intention figures are identical to figures from ComRes yesterday – the first time during the election campaign that figures…
YouGov – the Sun May 4 May 3 CONSERVATIVES 35% 35% LABOUR 30% 28% LIB DEMS 24% 28% Anthony Wells says: “Just when it was looking as though the position had settled down, we suddenly have a shift in support. It could be the “Cleggmania†bubble bursting, or people pulling away from a hung Parliament after the heavy Conservative campaigning against it, or Liberal Democrat supporters heeding the call of Labour figures to vote tactically for Labour…. or, it could…
Tonight’s polling thread.. I’m in London for my regular slot on the ITV campaign show with Jonathan Dimbleby. Tonight I’m expecting the ComRes roly-poly and YouGov. The big deluge of polls will come tomorrow. I’m won’t be back looking at the site until about 11.30pm. Mike Smithson
Year Post-war elections with a change of government 1951 Outgoing LAB government had lost an effective majority. The Tories won outright 1964 Incoming Labour government with minuscule majority. Second election eighteen months later 1970 Outgoing Labour government with working majority replaced by Tory government also with a working majority 1974F Incoming Labour minority government – second election held seven months later 1979 Outgoing LAB government had lost a working majority. The Tories won outright 1997 Outgoing CON government had lost…