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Will the Milibands still be on top after Newsnight?

15/6/2010 Editor Comments 0 Comment

BBC Newsnight Could tonight’s debate change the contest’s dynamics? Richard Darlington on the New Statesman blog has a good trailer for tonight’s Newsnight debate with Jeremy Paxman in the chair. It takes place in front of an audience of swing and former Labour voters and their reaction could play a key part. For unlike the sterile rules of the General Election TV debates the audience are able to cheer and show their disapproval. To my mind this is the big…

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Can the LDs afford to alienate public sector workers?

15/6/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

How dangerous for Clegg is leading on pensions? Nick Clegg’s statement about public sector pension is getting good coverage this morning and clearly we are being softened up for some quite drastic measures in the budget. But how risky for Clegg is it being associated with such a policy given that in the public eye at least he is now being seen as the prime mover? For there’s a lot of polling data to suggest that public sector workers do…

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Has Labour’s mayoral nomination been sewn up for Ken?

15/6/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Is it time be taking the 5/1 that he’ll get his job back? There’s another election taking place within the Labour party – that of who should be their candidate in the next London mayoral race in 2012. Like the contest for the leadership this will be completed by the time of the party’s conference in September. Such a truncated process so far ahead of the mayoral election itself has sparked off a row within the party suggesting that this…

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How Labour’s election system operates

14/6/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A look at what happened the 2007 deputy race It keeps on getting raised on the threads that it might be useful to look once again at how Labour’s leadership election system operates. This has only been used twice – for the election of Tony Blair in 1994 and the race the deputy position in 2007. There are three strands to the electoral college each making 33.33%. Every eligible voters in each section will get a ballot paper asking them…

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Conflicting trends from the latest polls (Revised)

14/6/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Fieldwork Pollster/Publication CON LAB LD OTH 10-11 June YouGov / Sunday Times 40 32 18 10 1- 9 June Harris/Metro 36 30 25 9 28-31 May ComRes / The Independent 37 33 21 9 21-23 May ICM / The Guardian 39 32 21 8 20-21 May YouGov / Sunday Times 39 32 21 7 13-14 May YouGov / Sunday Times 37 34 21 8 12-13 May ICMÂ / Sunday Telegraph 38 33 21 8 12-13 May ComRes / Independent on Sunday…

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Is Rentoul right about Mili-D’s Abbott nomination?

13/6/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What’ll her presence do to the 2nd and 3rd prefs? John Rentoul, the Indy on Sunday’s columnist who is often said to be more Blairite than Blair, has taken up the cause of Mili-D in a big way. This is how he describes the ex-foreign sec’s move to provide a last minute nomination so that Diane Abbot could get on the ballot:- ..”What she will do, of course, is take votes away from the most left-wing of the other candidates…It…

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Could Dave have stopped Nick from being here?

13/6/2010 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Is Michael Ashcroft right to vent his spleen? According to the News of the World’s political editor, Ian Kirby, the Tory fundraiser who became the target of Labour attacks, Michael Ashcroft, is writing a book in which he’s hugely crititcal of the Tory general election campaign and David Cameron’s leadership. A particular focus is said to be “the decision to put David Cameron alongside Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg in the three TV debates.” Ashcroft is right about their impact…

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YouGov boost for Abbott

12/6/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

YouGov – Labour leadership All voters Lab voters Public sector David Miliband 22 (-1) 38 (+4) 21 Diane Abbott 13 (+4) 9 (+2) 16 Ed Miliband 7 (-1) 11 (-2) 9 Ed Balls 5 (-1) 8 (-2) 7 Andy Burnham 4 (nc) 6 (+2) 6 But we need polling of the members and the unions The latest polling on public views of the Labour contests suggests that this is still about name recognition though the Abbott camp will be pleased…

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