Conflicting trends from the latest polls (Revised)

Conflicting trends from the latest polls (Revised)

Fieldwork Pollster/Publication CON LAB LD OTH
10-11 June YouGov / Sunday Times 40 32 18 10
1- 9 June Harris/Metro 36 30 25 9
28-31 May ComRes / The Independent 37 33 21 9
21-23 May ICM / The Guardian 39 32 21 8
20-21 May YouGov / Sunday Times 39 32 21 7
13-14 May YouGov / Sunday Times 37 34 21 8
12-13 May ICM / Sunday Telegraph 38 33 21 8
12-13 May ComRes / Independent on Sunday & Sunday Mirror 38 34 21 7
6th May General Election GB figures 37 29.7 23.6 9.8

Harris has the Yellows at 25 percent

We have not spent too much time looking at the voting intention polls since the election – after all the next election could be five years away.

Yesterday saw a YouGov poll which had the Tories up at 40% with the Lib Dems down at 18%. This morning there’s news of a slightly older Harris survey for the Metro that has Clegg’s party on 25% but with Labour showing no progress on the general election and the Tories down a point.

That’s a big difference on what is becoming a key matter – whether or not the Lib Dems are being punished by some voters for the deal with the Tories. YouGov seems to suggest they are – Harris reports otherwise.

A bigger question could be whether Labour might be back in the lead by the conference season. The next weeks are not likely to be good for the coalition following the budget – and at the end of September the first day of the Labour conference will see the announcement of the outcome of its leadership contest.

There’s invariably a boost anyway in the polls for parties at the time of their conferences and this, surely, could be the moment when we see the red team in the lead again.

In future I plan to show new polls in the above format – so we can see where the latest numbers fit alongside other recent surveys.

NOTE: This post has been updated to take into account the Harris poll.

  • The revised 2010 General Election poll rankings are here.
  • Mike Smithson

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