Is it time be taking the 5/1 that he’ll get his job back?
There’s another election taking place within the Labour party – that of who should be their candidate in the next London mayoral race in 2012. Like the contest for the leadership this will be completed by the time of the party’s conference in September.
Such a truncated process so far ahead of the mayoral election itself has sparked off a row within the party suggesting that this is being designed to help Ken. For in such a short time scale it will be hard for other contenders to establish themselves.
The only one to have put her hat into the ring so far has been Oonagh King and if it is a straight fight between her and Ken, who celebrates his 65th birthday on Thursday, then you’d go with Livingstone.
Nominations close next week and last night the former mayor, beaten by Boris in May 2008, got a boost with an endorsement from John Cruddas.
So what about the betting. PaddyPower have tightened Ken’s price for the nomination to 1/3 and appears to be the only bookie offering a market. A better bet might be on who will win in 2012. Here Victor Chandler offer a tempting 5/1 that Ken will do it.
If this is a repeat of the Boris-Ken show then, as Richard Nabavi was pointing out last night, that’s fantastic value even if it does mean locking up your stake until 2012. You’ll be able to cover yourself easily on Boris and should be confident of a profit.
And remember – when Boris beat Ken in May 2008 the Tories were enjoying national poll leads of 20 percent and more. On May 8th YouGov had an amazing C49-L23-LD17. That ain’t going to be the case in May 2012.