Who will be the next to leave the cabinet? Betting on cabinet casualties is punting for the brave, the stupid or someone with inside information. So if you are a Cabinet Minister’s secret lover, you can probably skip this post. Brave and stupid punters – read on. Paddy Power is the only conventional bookmaker with prices at the moment. As you can see, not all ministers are quoted, note that market does not apply to a ministerial reshuffle or a…
Has Channel 4 opened a hornet’s nest? The problem with the Channel 4 investigation into Zac Goldsmith’s election expenses is that it is an open secret amongst political practitioners that such practices are widespread and touch all the main parties where there are tight races. Nobody would ever admit it but there is what amounts to an unofficial truce amongst the main parties not to probe too deeply into how opponents accounted for specific campaigns. The reason is that they’ve…
The polls of the past three weeks Poll Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sun 13/07/10 43 34 15 YouGov/Sun 12/07/10 42 35 15 YouGov/Sun 11/07/10 42 35 15 YouGov/Sunday Times 10/07/10 42 34 17 YouGov/Sun 09/07/10 42 35 16 YouGov/Sun 08/07/10 41 36 17 YouGov/Sun 07/07/10 40 36 17 YouGov/Sun 06/07/10 41 36 15 YouGov/Sun 05/07/10 40 36 16 YouGov/Sunday Times 02/07/10 41 36 16 YouGov/Sun 01/07/10 42 35 16 YouGov/Sun 30/06/10 42 36 15 YouGov/Sun 29/06/10 42 36 15 YouGov/Sun…
Could Dave be tempted to go for an election? The above Tweet from the Sun certainly seemed to have got people going overnight overnight but how feasible is the idea of the blues going it alone? Surely the Sun’s political team have got this one wrong? Although a 43% share sounds good the poll numbers represents an increase in the CON share of 6% and an increase in the LAB share if 4.3%. That’s a swing to the Tories from…
Ed Miliband’s Campaign in Good Socialist Health As the Labour leadership rumbles on the contest appears to have taken a settled shape. The next phase is the big union nominations however it’s possible to make a judgement on how two thirds of Labour’s Electoral College will now vote. As most PB readers know the college is split into thirds between Labour Members of Parliament, Labour Party members and those in affiliated societies who pay a political levy. The latter include…
The Mandy serialisation – Day 3 On a day when the big political news could have been the parliamentary battles and votes on the budget VAT increases it’s the Mandy book serialisation in the Times that’s likely, once again, to provide the big talking point. Today in another extract devoid, it apears, of much detail, the focus is on the the Brown-Blair relationship and the tensions between the them. This is how the Guardian reports it: “The relationship between Tony…
It’s 6/1 that it WON’T be one of the two? Ladbrokes has a market that the winner of Labour’s leadership contest won’t be a Miliband. It’s 6/1 against that option with 1/14 that it will be a Miliband. If you are tempted then I’d suggest backing one or more of the other three rather than taking this bet. The best traditional bookie price is 12/1 against Balls with 25/1 against Burnham and 33/1 Abbott. The betting exchanges have even longer…
SkyNews Will Mandy’s VAT revelation hurt his party? According to the SkyNews today’s extract in the Times from has this description of a general election planning meeting from last October. ” …Harriet Harman proposed basing the party’s election campaign around three Fs: future, family and fairness. The former Business Secretary recounts that other ministers proposed their own Fs. “How about f****d?” Alistair Darling proposed. “Futile?” said Douglas Alexander. “Finished,” added Lord Mandelson, who was chairing the meeting. He also reveals…