The Labour betting heads for 60-40

The Labour betting heads for 60-40

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Betfair Politics Could there be a cross-over? The chart shows the Betfair prices, expressed as percentages, on what’s happening in the Labour race in which voting finishes on Wednesday at 5pm. I don’t think we’ll see another YouGov poll though it’s possible that one might have been commissioned. The moves over the past week have been driven by last Saturday’s survey for the Sunday Times. William Hill has reported that four out of every five bets it has laid on…

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Is now the time to back Palin?

Is now the time to back Palin?

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Do the 2010 primaries give her hope to make it all the way? This time next year, we’ll be well into the pre-primary season across the Atlantic and from the midterms so far, it’s shaping up to be a fascinating contest, with the Tea Party shaking up any number of races. Without getting too far into the detail, the scale of the inroads the Tea Party has made against incumbent politicians has been impressive. While a lot of the media…

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Harry Hayfield’s local by election round-up

Harry Hayfield’s local by election round-up

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By elections since GE Defended Held Gain Lost Now CON 37 21 5 16 26 LAB 25 22 12 3 35 LD 17 12 10 5 22 OTH 13 8 1 5 9 Elections held on September 16 2010 Name of ward: Park Local Authority: Knowsley Electoral Region: North West England Labour 650 votes (86.0% +6.1% on May 2010) Liberal Democrats 70 votes (9.3% -10.8% on May 2010) Conservatives 36 votes (4.8% did not contest in May 2010) Labour HOLD…

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Does Labour always recover quickly from defeat?

Does Labour always recover quickly from defeat?

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Election/Poll TORIES LABOUR LIBERAL Tories come to power 1951 48 48.8 2.5 Gallup after 6 months 41 48 9 Tories come to power 1970 46.4 43 7.5 Gallup after 6 months 42 47 8 Tories come to power 1979 43.9 36.9 13.8 Gallup after 6 months 39 43 15 Coalition comes to power 2010 37 29.7 23.6 MORI after five months 37 37 15 Is too much being read into the latest polls? Thanks to Professor Phil Cowley of Nottingham…

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Are EdM’s supporters just more fired up?

Are EdM’s supporters just more fired up?

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Is now the moment to get on the younger brother? After last night’s BBC Question Time leadership debate, in which all five acquitted themselves well, there are now almost no foreseeable events between now and the election closing. The big question is what’s going to happen in the betting? For currently the elder Miliband is the tight odds-on favourite while you can still get EdM at 1.94/1 on Betfair. The best traditional bookie price is 7/4. Those odds seem particularly…

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Can the final set-piece change the outcome?

Can the final set-piece change the outcome?

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..or have too many people already voted? Tonight we’ll see the final set-piece in Labour’s four and a half month long leadership election – the appearance of all five contenders in a special Question Time debate on BBC1. Has this come too late to make a difference? Maybe – because all the signs are that a large proportion of those eligible to vote got their ballots in early soon after they arrived at the start of the month. Last weekend’s…

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Did Michael Ashcroft bring good news for the Lib Dems?

Did Michael Ashcroft bring good news for the Lib Dems?

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Will LAB supporters still vote tactically for the yellows? Ever since the coalition was formed in May there’s been a widespread assumption that the many Labour supporters who voted tactically to support the Lib Dems in battles with the Tories will not do the same next time. This specific point has never been tested until now. But the data from the Michael Ashcroft-funded Populus poll of voters in the Sheffield Hallam and Eastleigh does provide some pointers. For as well…

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Labour draw level with Ipsos-MORI

Labour draw level with Ipsos-MORI

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Poll Date CON LAB LD LEAD Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 15/09/10 37 37 15 0 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 2 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 8 And the LDs move up a point What’s only the third MORI poll since the election is out today and has the red and blue teams neck and neck. On cuts Reuters report that most people, three in five, agree that they are necessary, but three-quarters believe it would be better to cut more slowly to…

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