Do the 2010 primaries give her hope to make it all the way? This time next year, we’ll be well into the pre-primary season across the Atlantic and from the midterms so far, it’s shaping up to be a fascinating contest, with the Tea Party shaking up any number of races. Without getting too far into the detail, the scale of the inroads the Tea Party has made against incumbent politicians has been impressive. While a lot of the media…
By elections since GE Defended Held Gain Lost Now CON 37 21 5 16 26 LAB 25 22 12 3 35 LD 17 12 10 5 22 OTH 13 8 1 5 9 Elections held on September 16 2010 Name of ward: Park Local Authority: Knowsley Electoral Region: North West England Labour 650 votes (86.0% +6.1% on May 2010) Liberal Democrats 70 votes (9.3% -10.8% on May 2010) Conservatives 36 votes (4.8% did not contest in May 2010) Labour HOLD…
Election/Poll TORIES LABOUR LIBERAL Tories come to power 1951 48 48.8 2.5 Gallup after 6 months 41 48 9 Tories come to power 1970 46.4 43 7.5 Gallup after 6 months 42 47 8 Tories come to power 1979 43.9 36.9 13.8 Gallup after 6 months 39 43 15 Coalition comes to power 2010 37 29.7 23.6 MORI after five months 37 37 15 Is too much being read into the latest polls? Thanks to Professor Phil Cowley of Nottingham…
Is now the moment to get on the younger brother? After last night’s BBC Question Time leadership debate, in which all five acquitted themselves well, there are now almost no foreseeable events between now and the election closing. The big question is what’s going to happen in the betting? For currently the elder Miliband is the tight odds-on favourite while you can still get EdM at 1.94/1 on Betfair. The best traditional bookie price is 7/4. Those odds seem particularly…
..or have too many people already voted? Tonight we’ll see the final set-piece in Labour’s four and a half month long leadership election – the appearance of all five contenders in a special Question Time debate on BBC1. Has this come too late to make a difference? Maybe – because all the signs are that a large proportion of those eligible to vote got their ballots in early soon after they arrived at the start of the month. Last weekend’s…
Will LAB supporters still vote tactically for the yellows? Ever since the coalition was formed in May there’s been a widespread assumption that the many Labour supporters who voted tactically to support the Lib Dems in battles with the Tories will not do the same next time. This specific point has never been tested until now. But the data from the Michael Ashcroft-funded Populus poll of voters in the Sheffield Hallam and Eastleigh does provide some pointers. For as well…
Poll Date CON LAB LD LEAD Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 15/09/10 37 37 15 0 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 2 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 8 And the LDs move up a point What’s only the third MORI poll since the election is out today and has the red and blue teams neck and neck. On cuts Reuters report that most people, three in five, agree that they are necessary, but three-quarters believe it would be better to cut more slowly to…
How meaningful are responses to very long questions? We’ve now got the precise wording of the polling question that was read out over the telephone to 751 interviewees in this week’s Populus poll from the Times and which has been seized upon as evidence that there is little backing amongst the public for the government’s core strategy. “Which of the following statements do you most agree with? Britain has a severe debt crisis and this government thinks the country’s budget…