Will YouGov ease Tory jitters over child benefit?

Will YouGov ease Tory jitters over child benefit?

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The Sun How much can we read into the figures? As reported overnight the Sun is carrying YouGov poll figures this morning which suggest that the George Osborne plan to take child benefit away from those paying higher rates of tax is actually pretty popular. It’s hard to argue with an 83%-15% split. But how much can you read into findings like this? For generally pollsters find that people are happy to support tax increases when it doesn’t affect them….

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Has Labour made a massive mistake in London?

Has Labour made a massive mistake in London?

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Have they chosen a loser rather than a potential winner? I’ve been out for most of the day and am only just catching up – and one thing that stands out is the ComRes poll in London. For while it shows the red team in a healthy 39-36-16 position on Westminster voting intentions in the capital the responses for the 2012 London mayoral race, paints a grim picture. Boris Johnson is ahead by 44-35 with almost one in five of…

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What’s the best Cameron speech bet?

What’s the best Cameron speech bet?

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Phrase/word/comment Ladbrokes odds Big Society 1/4 Climate Change 2/1 Florence 5/6 Red Ed 2/1 Trident 4/1 No time for a novice 2/1 Gordon Brown 2/1 Referendum 2/1 Old Labour 3/1 Socialist 3/1 In Europe but not run by Europe 6/1 Quiet Man 10/1 Electoral Pact 20/1 Bigoted Woman 66/1 Get On Your Bike 100/1 Ladbrokes Is tomorrow a chance to make a few bob? Above are the latest prices for this year’s Ladbrokes 2010 PM speech to his party conference…

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Should the Mail front page be worrying Downing Street?

Should the Mail front page be worrying Downing Street?

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Daily Mail Was it rushed though to wrong-foot EdM? The Mail’s front page this morning sets out the real challenge for the government over yesterday’s shock announcement by George Osborne on the withdrawal of child benefit from those who are paying tax at the higher rate. For as is well summed up in the headline it seems to be unfair and to penalise stay-at-home mums. The paper sums it up succinctly: “It will mean that any couple with one earner…

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Can the coalition go on winning the economy argument?

Can the coalition go on winning the economy argument?

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Most trusted on the economy All voters % CON % LAB % LD % Coalition led by Cameron & Clegg 50 95 11 69 Labour led by Ed Miliband 31 2 77 18 Neither 8 1 2 4 Don’t know 11 2 9 9 Could the child benefit move undermine public support? The above data is extracted from last Friday’s ICM poll for the Guardian and shows responses to the question “Who would you say you trusted more to take…

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Remember the last time YouGov was so out of line?

Remember the last time YouGov was so out of line?

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Polling comparisons from 2004 Date CON % LAB % LD% General election result 05/05/05 33.2 36.2 22.7 YouGov/Mail on Sunday 08/05/04 40 36 18 YouGov/Telegraph 29/04/04 39 35 19 MORI 19/04/04 34 36 22 ICM/Guardian 18/04/04 33 38 22 Populus/Times 04/04/04 34 34 22 YouGov/Telegraph 25/03/04 39 34 20 MORI 16/03/04 35 35 23 ICM/Guardian 11/03/04 35 37 21 Populus/Times 07/03/04 34 36 22 YouGov/Telegraph 26/02/04 39 34 21 ICM/Guardian 22/02/04 34 36 21 MORI/FT 16/02/04 35 36 21 Populus/Times…

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But why didn’t the Tories get a majority?

But why didn’t the Tories get a majority?

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Was/is the Conservative brand still contaminated? It’s now just on five months since the general election and the conference season has prompted a fair bit of looking back to try to work out what happened and why, specifically, the Tories failed in their attempt to secure an overall majority. I’ve just finished reading Denis Kavanagh’s and Philip Cowley’s The British General Election of 2010 – the eighteenth in a series of studies that go back to 1945. It comprises of…

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