Rod Crosby on the impact of Brown’s decision to take part After working hard in the run-up to the election I took a break for a while, and have really only just begun the post-mortem on my predictions and the actual result. One thing that caught my eye is this graph. For those who don’t recall, I promoted the Kalman Filter as the best way of “averaging” the polls, and as far as the critical Tory lead was concerned it…
YouGov London ALL voters CON GE LAB GE LD GE General election CON 38 100 0 0 General election LAB 42 0 100 0 General election LD 13 0 0 100 1st choice BORIS 46 85 12 38 1st choice KEN 44 10 78 38 1st choice LD 4 2 2 23 BORIS forced choice 46 84 17 42 KEN forced choice 41 12 76 45 Could Ken close the gap? May 2012 seems an awful long time off but…
Could Osborne’s plans be too much for one or more to stomach? The coalition has been in office for five months and seven days and the only ministerial resignation, the one by David Laws, had nothing to do with the policies that the partners were pursuing. But could all that change on Wednesday – the day when George Osborne presents his statement to the commons? Could this be right time for the faint-hearts, if there are any of them, to…
Guardian Is the coalition being judged on its existence – not its actions? As we start this critical week a Monday morning column that stands is the one by the Guardian’s Julian Glover is which he tries to answer the question of why many on the left seem to hate the Lib Dems so much. He writes: “..The big boys ran the country. The Lib Dems were supposed to yelp admonitions from the sidelines. Labour commissioned the Browne review on…
As we get closer Tim T looks at the prospects These mid-terms started with the 109th Congress. By 2006, deficits and scandals meant libertarians and socially liberal fiscal conservatives had little reason left to vote Republican. The GOP deserved to lose the House and Senate – and they did. By 2008, both the Bush and GOP brands were toxic. Even so, McCain nearly won – in early September, he led in the polls. 3 gaffes cost him dearly: admitting his…
Polling ranges Oct 8 – 16 High Low CONSERVATIVES 43 (YouGov) 38 (ICM) LABOUR 40 (YouGov) 34 (ICM & ComRes) LIB DEMS 18 (ICM) 11 (YouGov) Why the difference between the pollsters? As we start this critical political week it is extraordinarily hard to come to any real conclusions about where opinion stands from the polling. Just look at the ranges that we’ve seen since last weekend and the different pictures that the three polling organisations – ICM, YouGov and…
Will the findings tell us much about public opinion? According to the the Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul there’s a new ComRes poll tonight which as well as the standard voting intention question asks whether people agree or disagree with the following:- “The Coalition Government understands the interests of the wealthy better than the interests of ordinary people” “It is fair that students should pay more for their university education even though their parents’ generation didn’t” “Welfare benefit cuts will…
Is this the week we find out just how strong the coalition is? Back in May, it all looked so easy, relaxed and natural. Cameron and Clegg joking at the press conference in the Number Ten garden, negotiations concluded smoothly between the parties, ministers working together round the cabinet table and so on. This week, it was a lot harder, with Lib Dem MP’s voting for huge rises in tuition fees and Tory MP’s voting for the UK’s contribution to…