YouGov: Boris just ahead in the 2012 Mayoral race

YouGov: Boris just ahead in the 2012 Mayoral race

YouGov London ALL voters CON GE LAB GE LD GE
General election CON 38 100 0 0
General election LAB 42 0 100 0
General election LD 13 0 0 100
1st choice BORIS 46 85 12 38
1st choice KEN 44 10 78 38
1st choice LD 4 2 2 23
BORIS forced choice 46 84 17 42
KEN forced choice 41 12 76 45

Could Ken close the gap?

May 2012 seems an awful long time off but YouGov has become the second online pollster to publish a survey on the next mayoral election.

Before the 2008 race we didn’t get any polling until November 2007 – six months before polling day. This latest survey comes nineteen months before Ken and Boris battle it out again.

I’ve included in the table new Westminster voting intention numbers for the capital and have used the cross tabs to show how national voting intention is linked to preferences in the mayoral ballot.

Notice the high level of switch over with one in six of Labour Westminster voters going for Boris and one in eight Tory voters going for Ken. Lib Dem supporters are split almost down the middle.

The mayoral voting system offer electors two choices – it’s not quite the alternative vote but is somewhat similar. Second preferences could be crucial. So there are two rows of data for the Mayor – the first choices and the forced choice when it gets down to the final two. On the former Boris has a two point lead which rises to five on the latter.

It’s perhaps worth pointing out that YouGov has a superb record with London Mayoral elections. In both 2004 and 2008 its final polls were correct to within one percent.

The betting Ladbrokes have Boris at 8/11 and Ken at 11/10.

Mike Smithson

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