Nate Silver at the New York Times I like the way Nate Silver is representing this election as all eyes focus on the west coast states of California and Washington which look set to determine the outcome in the Senate. The GOP has made big gains in the House of Representative winning most of the key races. I was struck by this point from Kieran on the previous thread:- “This configuration (Dem Pres, Dem Senate (if it holds), GOP House)…
How’s it going to look for Obama in the morning? Probably a good link to get early news of exit polls and other information is Huffington Post here. The betting has remained very light with only about £6,000 matched on Betfair during the day. Mike Smithson
“Stick with first past the post or stick with AV?†(YouGov) All voters CON% LAB % LD% Switch to AV 32 24 32 70 Stick with first past the post 43 62 49 14 Wouldn’t vote/don’t know 25 14 19 16 “Blame for the spending cuts?†(YouGov) All voters CON% LAB % LD% CON-LD coalition 20 1 52 5 Last Labour government 46 91 7 69 Both 22 5 25 15 Neither 7 2 13 6 Lots of polling has…
How the polling shares are made up (ComRes) CON at G. Election LAB at G. Election LD at G. Election Did not vote Conservative 84% 1% 2% 7% Labour 2% 62% 15% 15% Lib Dem 5% 5% 74% 11% But how reliable is their support? This is a table that I don’t think we’ve looked at before – what those who now say they are voting for the three main parties did at the last election. The reason the rows…
Mid-Terms Betfair betting markets Amount matched House of Reps Democratic seats £73 House of Reps GOP seats £91 House control £33,971 Senate Democratic seats £0 Senate GOP seats £0 Senate control £64,823 Why are punters shunning the Mid-Terms? Today’s the big one in the US – the Mid-Term elections that take place in every presidency two years the White House race. These are immensely important in political terms because they can often define the final part of a four year…
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 15/10/10 40 34 14 ComRes/Independent (Online) 01/10/10 39 36 15 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 16/09/10 37 35 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 05/09/10 38 34 18 ComRes/Mirror/GMTV (Phone) 15/08/10 39 33 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 08/08/10 39 33 16 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 27/06/10 40 31 18 Are we now seeing the affect of the cuts? Tonight’s survey from ComRes in the Indy is the first for…
How bad will tomorrow be for the Democrats? The final day and the dice are cast. Early voting has been heavy, but returns by party affiliation may be of little value in predicting either turnout (the percentage of voters voting early is expected to increase) or relative turnout between the parties. Neither campaign changed tactics much over the last few weeks. The GOP kept banging the anti-Obama/Pelosi/Reid drum, the Democrat House campaigns went nastily ad hominem, and the President sought…
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % Angus Reid/? 28/10/10 35 37 15 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 01/10/10 35 38 16 Labour leads for the second month running There’s a new online poll from Angus Reid – only the second such survey since the general election. As can be seen Labour are still in the lead though it’s down a point on last month. What’s not seen above is the SNP figure which stands at an extraordinary 4%. The big…