Labour take the lead in ComRes phone poll

Labour take the lead in ComRes phone poll

Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD %
ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16
ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 15/10/10 40 34 14
ComRes/Independent (Online) 01/10/10 39 36 15
ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 16/09/10 37 35 15
ComRes/Independent (Phone) 05/09/10 38 34 18
ComRes/Mirror/GMTV (Phone) 15/08/10 39 33 15
ComRes/Independent (Phone) 08/08/10 39 33 16
ComRes/Independent (Phone) 27/06/10 40 31 18

Are we now seeing the affect of the cuts?

Tonight’s survey from ComRes in the Indy is the first for two months that has been carried out on the telephone. The pollsters most recent political polls have been online and that makes direct comparison a little tricky.

There’s a widespread view that online polling favours the Tories while the telephone fieldwork favours Labour. It is good that ComRes is continuing a telephone presence although, no doubt, these are a lot more expensive to carry out.

The Tory and Labour shares are exactly the same as the online Angus Reid poll that we had earlier – the only difference being that there’s one point more for the Lib Dems.

Tonight’s poll will bring a lot of cheer to the red camp and perhaps cause some concern to the blues. It will also take some of the pressure off the the yellows.

The 16 point share for Clegg’s party is the same as ICM and only one point more than last week’s other telephone poll from Populus.

It comes after an intense political period which have been dominated by the cuts packages.

My only slight caveat with ComRes is that I like to see the past vote weightings that have been applied and we’ll have to wait for that.

The standard YouGov daily poll is due out within the next few minutes.

UPDATE: The YouGov daily poll is out and has CON 41%: LAB 39%: LD 11%. Once again the online pollster is seriously out of line with the other firms with the Lib Dem share.

Mike Smithson

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