Is Labour winning the battle for non-voters?

Is Labour winning the battle for non-voters?

How the polling shares are made up (ComRes) CON at G. Election LAB at G. Election LD at G. Election Did not vote
Conservative 84% 1% 2% 7%
Labour 2% 62% 15% 15%
Lib Dem 5% 5% 74% 11%

But how reliable is their support?

This is a table that I don’t think we’ve looked at before – what those who now say they are voting for the three main parties did at the last election. The reason the rows don’t add up to 100% is that I’ve ignored those who refused or said that “don’t remember”.

As can be seen 84% of current Tory support comes from those who voted blue in May with a few pick-ups from Labour and the Lib Dems and just 7% who did not vote.

The Lib Dems have a fairly similar picture with just on three quarters of current voters having supported the party at the general election. They’ve picked up a little bit from the Tories and Labour and 11% are in the “did not vote” category.

Labour, which has seen its show move up sharply from the election has just 62% of general election voters amongst its current supporters. On top of that there’s 15% that have come from the Lib Dems and a further 15% from the ranks of the non-voters.

It’s that last group that’s most interesting. Clearly the party is now appealing to a broader base but how much of that segment be counted upon?

In many of the pre-general election in May the Lib Dems were doing well amongst the “did not vote last time” group and, alas for them, a significant slab failed to turn out.

Mike Smithson

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