Mubarak bows to the inevitable?
Aljazeera But what/who is going to replace him?
Does social democracy have a future?
A special guest slot by Sean Fear Social Democracy has been the dominant political philosophy in Western Europe for the past 50 years or so, and has been influential in the rest of the Western World over the same period. A political philosophy is dominant when even its opponents are obliged to accept its fundamental beliefs, in order to get elected. Essentially, Social Democrats (unlike more traditional Socialists) believe that there is no need for governments to take direct control…
What are the implications of “votes for prisoners”?
Where will the fallout from yesterday’s vote end? If the overwhelming vote in the Commons against prisoners being granted the vote is unsurprising, it is so only because in choosing between reflecting the views of the country and setting up a clash with the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), they opted for the former despite the can of worms that could open up. In the past, politicians have tended to opt for a ‘hands tied’ defence. In the short…
Is the Egyptian crisis moving to a close?
BBC news But will Mubarak really stand down? The big world story tonight is the Egyptian crisis which looks as though it might be in its final stages. Reports are coming out that Mubarak is about to stand down – but could this just be another ploy to buy more time. The next 24 hours could be critical. Mike Smithson
Could Bercow still be Speaker in 2038?
Will he follow predecessors and stay till his mid-70s? Last night night I took part in a PoliticsHome poll of “Westminister insiders” on John Bercow’s chances of staying in the job for this parliament. Thinking about the question it is hard to see how he could be forced out if he was determined to stay. He’d brazen it out, surely, and it’s unlikely there would ever be a situation when a there’d be a majority of MPs willing to pass…
Does the Rooker amendment give Nick Clegg a blank cheque?
Could AV be introduced even if the country voted NO? So Monday’s vote (a squeaker at 219 Content vs 218 Not-content) in the House of Lords was on an amendment introduced by Lord Rooker, and read simply: “If less than 40% of the electorate vote in the referendum, the result shall not be binding” Ignoring for one moment the rights and wrongs of turnout thresholds, I’m not sure what impact this might have on the respective campaigns. My first thought…
Why aren’t all pollsters asking referendum questions?
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording YouGov/Sun 07/02/11 38 (+6) 39 (-2) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition Angus Reid/ 25/01/11 37 21 Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 14/01/11 36 30 Actual wording on the ballot ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot Meanwhile YouGov moves more into line on the referendum In the past fortnight we’ve had new…
How bad will it be for Fianna Fáil?
The Irish election: Part 1 In the 2007 Irish general election, Fianna Fáil got 41.6% of first-preference votes. If the opinion polls are to be believed, the party’s vote share in the coming election on 25th February is set to collapse to something between 15% and 18%. That is comparable to the infamous collapse of the vote of the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993, which saw that party wiped out from 169 seats in the Canadian Parliament to just…