What if the party on 43 struggles against the party on 9?

What if the party on 43 struggles against the party on 9?

Comments 0 Comment

Is this election really all about EdM’s leadership? I very much agree with the former Blair advisor, John McTernan’s take on his Telegraph blog. ..This is, in the end, all about Labour. And more precisely, all about Ed Miliband. He needs a strong result because Oldham East and Saddleworth is a seat where Labour shouldn’t need to break sweat. Phil Woolas held the seat when Labour were a bare six points ahead of the Lib Dems nationally, with the margin…

Read More Read More

A cautionary tale about following the betting

A cautionary tale about following the betting

Comments 0 Comment

Remember this threat thread from five years ago? LDs shortening on betfiar re DF. Tabman February 9th, 2006 at 11:42 pm Has any government EVER had such a good -election record? The Professor February 9th, 2006 at 11:42 pm LibDem agent in Dunfermline says they are ‘optimistic of retaining second place’. Nick Palmer MP February 9th, 2006 at 11:43 pm Professor) If you correct for the lower number of -elections these days (longer life expectancy and younger MPs), the Tories…

Read More Read More

Do the slimmed-down Tories hold the key to tonight’s result?

Do the slimmed-down Tories hold the key to tonight’s result?

Comments 0 Comment

How much weight should we give to Blue>Yellow switching? There are two factors in today’s election that could just possibly cause an upset:- Differential turnout in each of the main party support groups. Will the red team manage to get the same proportion of its known backers to the polling stations as Team Watkins? In the past Labour has tended to come out with lower shares than by election polls suggested. What will wavering Tory supporters do especially following the…

Read More Read More

Does the AV referendum question wording favour YES?

Does the AV referendum question wording favour YES?

Comments 0 Comment

Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording YouGov 10/01/11 32 41 See wording below Angus Reid 07/01/11 37 20 Actual phrasing that’s on the ballot paper ICM 19/12/10 44 38 Actual phrasing that’s on the ballot paper Why’s YouGov the pollster that’s out of line again? There’s a new Angus Reid poll out on the AV referendum and its findings are in sharp contrast to YouGov. The Canadian pollster has, like ICM, used the precise wording…

Read More Read More

Who’s trying to talk up the Tories through Ladbrokes?

Who’s trying to talk up the Tories through Ladbrokes?

Comments 0 Comment

Why are all the new Ladbrokes accounts being opened? According to Ladbrokes Tories have been backed to win the Oldham & Saddleworth by-election by mystery political punters in an eleventh hour gamble. They report that several new accounts have been opened in the Oldham area with the new punters eager to bet as much money as possible on an incredible Tory triumph. The Conservatives had been as big as 100/1 before the shock plunge – which has seen their odds…

Read More Read More

Will being forced to stay positive have hurt Labour?

Will being forced to stay positive have hurt Labour?

Comments 0 Comment

But hasn’t this taken the edge off their message? The events that led up to this by-election have put a series of constraints on the red team which is certainly showing itself in the final couple of days. For the one thing they’ve been unable to do is put out anything that could be portrayed as a smear against the LD’s Elwyn Watkins – the man who took the Woolas campaign to court leading to the ex-minister being disqualified. The…

Read More Read More

Marf makes a return to PB

Marf makes a return to PB

Comments 0 Comment

But please go on voting in our OES prediction We haven’t seen Marf, PB’s cartoonist for some time and it’s great to welcome her back with her take on the bankers’ bonuses – a subject we would have been covering but for the proximity of Thursday’s election. In the meantime you can continue to make your predictions on what will happen in Old & Sad. It’s great to welcome you back Marf – you’ve been missed. What will be the…

Read More Read More

OK guys and gals: time to put your predictions on the record

OK guys and gals: time to put your predictions on the record

Comments 0 Comment

Is this women going to be an MP on Friday? I’ve just laid Labour at 1.05 on Betfair – that’s a return of 20 times the money I’ve got at risk if they fail to do it. I think it’s a value bet. So what about you. What do you think will be the outcome on Thursday? Please use the quickies poll below and used the thread to post your predictions for posterity. PB, for those that didn’t know, is…

Read More Read More