Patrick asks: “Is the left leading a fight against reality?”

Patrick asks: “Is the left leading a fight against reality?”

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A Guest Opinion Slot on today’s union calls for action Much has been written about the scale and speed of public spending reductions announced by the chancellor. The political right is welcoming the move as unavoidable and long overdue move to address the dangers of having an enormous deficit and debt position. The left is warning of a double dip recession and civil unrest. The overall trajectory of the advanced nations since the Second World War has been, until recent…

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YES still ahead in AV polls that ask the actual question

YES still ahead in AV polls that ask the actual question

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Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording Angus Reid 25/01/11 35 (-2) 21 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot YouGov/Sun 25/01/11 32 (nc) 41 (nc) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ComRes/Indy on Sunday 14/01/11 36 30 Actual wording on the ballot ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot How close a battle is it going to be? With YouGov’s latest daily poll…

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My 1,000 pound wager offer to the Telegraph’s Ed West

My 1,000 pound wager offer to the Telegraph’s Ed West

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Telegraph blogs Is UKIP the party it never happens for? I’ve gone on Twitter this afternoon offering a £1000 wager to Telegraph blogger, Ed West, over his assertionsabout UKIP that it is “only a matter of time before they overtake the Lib Dems” in the polls. I’ve defined the bet as UKIP’s share exceeding that of the Lib Dems in any of the next 36 months, in the PAPA All Pollsters’ Average over that period – the calculation being based…

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Angus Reid has CON 33: LAB 41: LD 12

Angus Reid has CON 33: LAB 41: LD 12

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Poll Date CON % LAB % LD % Angus Reid/Politicalbetting 25/01/11 33 41 12 Angus Reid/ 06/01/11 35 40 12 Angus Reid/ 20/12/10 35 41 9 Angus Reid/ 29/11/10 35 40 13 Angus Reid/ 28/10/10 35 37 15 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 01/10/10 35 38 16 More good polling news for Labour There’s a new Angus Reid poll out as well and this shows the same broad trend that we’ve seen from other pollsters – the Tory share down a touch…

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The Tories take a big hit with Ipsos-MORI

The Tories take a big hit with Ipsos-MORI

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Poll/Publication Date CON % LAB % LD % Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 24/01/11 33 43 13 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/12/10 38 39 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 14/11/10 36 39 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 17/10/10 39 36 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/09/10 37 37 15 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 Labour move to a ten point lead The Reuters/MORI poll for January is just out and shows a five point decline in the Tory share and a four point increase in Labour’s. The result is a gap…

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Does it matter that public school boys run Britain?

Does it matter that public school boys run Britain?

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What do we think of the Andrew Neil programme? One of the big talking points today, I’m sure, will be last night’s hour long documentary on BBC2 presented by Andrew Neil – “Posh and Posher: Why Public School Boys Run Britain”. As the programme blurb states “David Cameron and Nick Clegg seem made for each other: Eton and Oxford meets Westminster School and Cambridge. But does the return of public school boys to the top of our politics say something…

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The coalition starts to lose ground in the “cuts blame game”?

The coalition starts to lose ground in the “cuts blame game”?

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Which is most to blame for the cuts? (YouGov) CON-LD coalition Last Labour government Both of them Neither 25/01/11 26 40 24 5 10/01/11 22 40 25 8 11/12/10 23 41 24 7 15/11/10 22 43 23 7 07/10/10 17 47 20 10 20/09/10 21 44 22 7 06/09/10 22 45 20 6 31/08/10 23 45 20 6 16/08/10 22 45 21 6 02/08/10 22 45 20 6 19/07/10 21 48 19 7 05/07/10 21 44 21 8 23/06/10 18…

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How important is Ken to Labour’s recovery plan?

How important is Ken to Labour’s recovery plan?

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Will the old bruiser win his job back We’ve not looked at it for some time but one of the key battles next year will be for the Mayor of London. Every single elector throughout the capital can vote in what is a massive election. Boris Johnson won the crown in 2008 at a time when the popularity of the Tories was at a height and Labour was down in the doldrums. Nearly 2,5m people voted, a turnout of 45%,…

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