ComRes splits Total % 18-24 % 25-34 % 35-44 % 45-54% 55-64 % 65 plus % CON 35 17 26 33 31 39 50 LAB 39 59 43 39 39 39 30 LD 12 15 17 14 11 9 10 Is this why 1 in 7 LAB supporters failed to turn-out? One of my pet theories on opinion poll movements is that a lot of the change from survey to survey is driven by the least valuable electors of all…
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % ComRes/Independent (Phone) 27/02/11 35 39 12 14 ComRes/Independent (phone) 30/01/11 34 43 10 13 ComRes/Independent (phone) 09/01/11 34 42 12 12 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 29/11/10 36 40 12 12 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 12 But why no AV question? There’s a new ComRes phone poll out for tomorrow’s Indy which shows a four points drop for the reds with a two point increase for the yellows and a one…
Does he still hanker after the leadership? One of the slightly odd features of this afternoon’s Cameron statement on Libya was that not so long after Ed Miliband gave his response his brother, the former foreign secretary, was called. The elder brother made a very statesman-like contribution from the unfamiliar position of the back benches and for a moment I thought he was going to upstage Ed. He didn’t and kept his point brief. But what is going to happen…
Next Cabinet minister to leave Party Ladbrokes price Vince Cable LD 7/2 Michael Moore LD 6/1 William Hague CON 8/1 Cheryl Gillan CON 8/1 Liam Fox CON 10/1 Andrew Mitchell CON 12/1 Kenneth Clarke CON 12/1 Lord Strathclyde CON 12/1 Baroness Warsi CON 12/1 Chris Huhne LD 14/1 Andrew Lansley CON 14/1 Theresa May CON 16/1 Caroline Spelman CON 16/1 Michael Gove CON 20/1 Nick Clegg LD 20/1 Eric Pickles CON 20/1 Iain Duncan Smith CON 25/1 Danny Alexander LD…
RTE Record seat hauls for FG, Labour, and Sinn Fein as FF collapse Links: RTE live blog RTE map and results Irish Times Irish Independent Many smaller European countries manage to count their votes in four hours or less, but Ireland isn’t one of them. However, the marathon vote count in this historic election is finally drawing to a close, but with 16 Dail seats remaining to be filled, and four constituencies still counting (Laois-Offaly, Wicklow, and recounts in both…
Is “YES to AV” a proxy for government dissatisfaction? This week the NO campaign will focus its attention not on the issue that’s on the ballot paper but on Nick Clegg. The aim is to make the May 5th election a referendum on the Lib Dem leader. Ads have been drawn up with the headline “Say No to President Clegg” together with their claim that a switch to AV will cost £250m – a figure that has been attacked from…
Has the SAS come to the aid of government? So far the early headlines look pretty good for ministers with the SAS rescue in Libya capturing the imagination of several headline writers. There’s something about the SAS that runs very deep in the British psyche and the reports that their heroism has yet again helped sort out a potentially difficult situation will be devoured eagerly at home. After a tricky week or the government this could not have been better…
Irish Times FG set for government, FF for meltdown, Labour for coalition? Links: RTE live RTE constituency map One of the world’s longest election counts is now underway, with unofficial (but normally very accurate) vote tallies coming in from all over Ireland. Most first counts won’t be declared until mid-afternoon or even early evening, and it’s likely to take well into Sunday for the counting to near its finish. What is already clear is that this will be a historic…