|Next Cabinet minister to leave||Party||Ladbrokes price|
|Iain Duncan Smith||CON||25/1|
Should you be getting your money on?
Last September when I first got whiff of the rumours surrounding William Hague I had a punt at odds much less favourable than Ladbrokes current 8/1 that the foreign secretary, William Hague, would be the next cabinet minister to leave.
The former Tory leader survived difficult few days but the my bets still stands although I thinks it’s a loser. The only cabinet to leave since the coalition was formed last May has been David Laws and the government has remained intact.
It seems the interest in Hague, he’s moved in from 12/1, is being driven by what some are seeing as his less than convincing performances in response to the Libya crisis. Maybe – maybe not. But politicians are by their nature hugely resilient and Cameron has shown himself to be loyal to his team.
Hague, it will be recalled, was absolutely central to the coalition negotiations with the Lib Dems after the general election and was the one who communicated to the yellows the final offer that sealed the deal – the binding AV referendum which the blues would support without a turnout threshold with whipped votes in the commons.
If the May 5th referendum goes wrong for the Tories then everything that went on over that crucial weekend last May will be subject to the most intense scrutiny and Cameron will want to have Hague at his side.
My reading of the terms of the betting markets is that it requires someone to leave the cabinet completely – so that wouldn’t cover being switched to another role.