NO moves to its biggest lead of the campaign A new poll by ComRes for tonight’s London Evening Standard has the biggest lead for NO so far seen in the referendum campaign when the actual wording was put. So far I cannot find any further details and don’t even know whether this was online or by phone. Also ComRes has had an odd approach to turnout weighting using responses to their general elections voting certainty question. Whatever this split is…
Is he the “safe pair of hands” to take on troubled portfolios? In recent weeks the AV campaign has brought back to prominence John Reid – the man I thought should have taken over as Labour leader when Tony Blair was forced out in 2007. He played a blinder with his double act last week with Cameron underlining why he was seen by many as the best Labour commuicator of his era. He famously dubbed Jeremy Paxman a “West London…
PBers and the Royal Wedding – tick those that apply I’m very interested I’m fairly interested I’m not very interested I’ve no interest at all It’s likely that I’ll watch on TV I probably won’t watch the TV coverage I’ve had at least on bet on some aspect of the wedding I’ve not had any wedding-related bets at all
Populus May 2005 A reminder of this shocker from 2005? At a big polling conference before the 2010 general election the boss of ICM, Martin Boon, touched on the challenges of carrying out surveys over bank holiday weekends and referred to the above famous Populus poll from 2005. For fieldwork took place over the Saturday, Sunday and Monday before the May 5 2005 general election day and came out with a 14 point Labour lead – three days later Blair’s…
The first viewer reaction on the Daily Politics to PMQs was from someone who was concerned about Cameron’s “calm down dear” comment to a female Labour front bencher. John Rentoul thought the comment would go down well outside the house. I’m not so sure particularly because it has a sexist ring to it. Would he have said the same to Ed Balls? A big challenge for Dave is that his manner can be portrayed as bullying and I think I…
What will he focus on at PMQs today? It’s been several weeks since EdM and Dave last faced each other across the house at PMQs – and how things have developed in that time with the coalition partners. They are back again in the chamber at midday and the blue-yellow gulf that we’ve seen in the last week should surely present some easy pickings for the Labour leader. How best should he exploit them and what does he want to…
Is attacking Dave/George going to resonate? I am told that this ad is being used in strong Labour areas, particularly in the north. To me the linking of the local elections, the referendum and using the Labour logo is quite smart and for some audiences might be quite effective. This is all part of the Mandy attack strategy that we saw last night – put the focus on Cameron/Osborne not on Clegg. We shall see if it works. UPDATE The…
What will this week’s surveys tell us There’s a poll from last week from the Canadian online firm, Angus Reid, that’s just been published and like the ICM and YouGov surveys at about the same time has the split at 58-42 to NO. The fieldwork finished last Thursday so is now quite old – but it does bear out what we saw from other firms. There has been a big shift to the NO camp. Most of the change has…