How valid is the YouGov 58% YES poll?

How valid is the YouGov 58% YES poll?

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Did previous questions influence the referendum finding? There’s a new AV poll from YouGov just out that was commissioned by the Institute for Public Policy Research and has findings that are very different from other recent surveys from the online pollster. After re-percentaging so that only decided voters are included the survey found YES ahead by 58% to 42% – a lead of sixteen points. This compares with the most recent YouGov AV poll that has NO 8% ahead. What…

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Will raising immigration stop the seepage of votes to UKIP?

Will raising immigration stop the seepage of votes to UKIP?

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Has Dave decided on a core votes strategy? With three weeks to go before the May 5th elections David Cameron is getting big headlines this morning over a speech that he’ll make on immigration. This marks a big change from last year’s general election when the main parties sought, each for their own reasons, to side-step the issue even though it generally ranks as one of the public’s main concerns. So what’s prompted today’s move in which he will attack…

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Does Dave’s 2009 speech rank alongside Clegg’s pledge on fees?

Does Dave’s 2009 speech rank alongside Clegg’s pledge on fees?

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It’s so easy to please when you are in opposition Some smart cookie has dug up this clip from April 2009 of Cameron getting rapturous applause from the Royal College of Nursing conference. His talk then of “pointless reorganisations” of the NHS that “then bring chaos” certainly got a great response delegates two years ago but then, like when Clegg made his pledge on student fees, they were in opposition. The world is so much different now they are in…

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REMINDER: London Event on Monday evening

REMINDER: London Event on Monday evening

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Hope you can make the next PB gathering Thanks to Fat Steve for once again organising this. The next informal PB get-together is for the fourth time at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station. It’s on Monday – kick off is at 6pm. Earlier, at 4pm, a number of PBers are gathering at the Guildhall Gallery about ten minutes walk away where Marf, the site’s cartoonist, has an exhibition including a number of…

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Could the LDs really contain vote losses to just 2pc?

Could the LDs really contain vote losses to just 2pc?

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Do by-elections point to a less bad night on May 5th? One of the most surprising sets of data presented by Professors Rallings and Thrasher at the Political Studies Association seminar on the May 5th local elections is featured above. For a decade and more the two political scientists have produced a national equivalent vote share projection based on each set of local election results. In 2007, when most of the seats being contested this year were last up, the…

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YouGov reports sharp move to NO in just 4 days

YouGov reports sharp move to NO in just 4 days

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What’s behind the shift? There’s been a sharp move to NO reported from YouGov and it’s all happened in the space of four days. At the weekend the Sunday Times survey from the firm had the YES campaign with a two point leader amongst decided voters. Today’s SUN is now reporting that the latest poll, where fieldwork closed yesterday afternoon, has NO eight points ahead. This is the first time that News International’s pollster has had NO ahead when the…

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What if it’s an overall YES but England votes NO?

What if it’s an overall YES but England votes NO?

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Could the real argument start AFTER May 5th? With one poll after another showing the referendum race as neck and neck there becomes a real possibility that we could see the overall UK result being a YES but with England going NO. The reasons have been discussed here before. The referendum coincides with general elections to the devolved parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with turnout, perhaps into the 60s. In England there are either local council elections or,…

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Can Labour meet the Colin Rallings target?

Can Labour meet the Colin Rallings target?

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Will 1,000+ gains justify the poll ratings? It’s always the case ahead of the May local elections that parties seek to lower expectations in order that they can better them and so declare their performances a great success. That’s politics and we are seeing a bout of it at the moment. So it’s no wonder that Labour is trying to dampen down forecasts that the party is in for a brilliant night on May 5th. The most they’ll admit is…

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