Which LD MPs will look vulnerable after Thursday?

Which LD MPs will look vulnerable after Thursday?

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Is it the wards in their constituencies that matter? Clearly the focus is going to be on the Lib Dems when the results are announced on Thursday and Friday and the areas that matter most, I’d suggest are where there is a sitting MP. Almost certainly the MP incumbents will be producing aggregates of the votes cast in wards and devolved parliament seats within their constituency boundaries which could give a good indication about their current chances. For many it’s…

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Who’ll win the AV polling race?

Who’ll win the AV polling race?

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How’ll the firms deal with the “Ratty factor”? I love Marf’s exclusive cartoon for PB this morning – particularly Ratty’s graffiti “Who cares”? For that sentiment, surely, represents perhaps the biggest fear for the pollsters whose final surveys will be tested against real results this Friday. People might respond “Yes” or “No” when called in a survey and they might say they are 100% certain of voting but can we really believe them? The figures from the detailed data are…

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Canada kicks off the busy election week

Canada kicks off the busy election week

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Globe & Mail After Fianna Fáil and the True Finns, another mould-breaker? Despite the death of Bin Laden (and what will the impact of that be for US 2012?), normal democratic politics continues. It seems that many recent elections have deserved the “historic” tag – Ireland and Finland this year, plus a clutch in 2010 including the UK, Australia and the US Midterms. Could today’s election in Canada be about to join the list of mouldbreakers? At the start of…

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How the Osama news has been seen in the US

How the Osama news has been seen in the US

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The first hard news from Canada’s election will come in about four hours time. Double Carpet is ready with a new thread. In the meantime, as we reflect on this momentous day the above collection of clips from Politicos gives a real sense of how Osama death is seen in the US. Mike Smithson

Labour’s bid for a majority in Wales is on a knife edge

Labour’s bid for a majority in Wales is on a knife edge

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There’s a new and almost certainly final YouGov poll on Thursday Welsh Assembly elections and the shares suggest that it will be touch and go as to whether Labour secures an overall majority. These are the detailed shares:- Constituencies Labour 45% Conservative 21% Plaid Cymru 18% Liberal Democrat 8% List Labour 41% Conservative 20% Plaid Cymru 18% Liberal Democrat 7% UKIP 7% Green 4% The seat calculators suggest this would give Labour exactly half of the 60 seats. Hopefully there…

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What’ll Osama’s killing do to Obama’s chances?

What’ll Osama’s killing do to Obama’s chances?

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ABC News Nine years, seven months and twenty one days after the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers and the the Pentagon the US networks are reporting that Osama Bin Laden has been killed at a compound in Pakistan in a joint CIA/Special forces operation. According to ABC News quoting a national security source: “… a compound in Pakistan where the terror mastermind was believed to be had been monitored for months. When the decision was made to move on…

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Is privacy possible for the couple that seem to have it all?

Is privacy possible for the couple that seem to have it all?

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Now the betting attention switches to the honeymoon Marf’s cartoon this afternoon sums it up neatly for the newly married couple. They may seem to have it all but for the foreseeable future they are in the public spot-light and it’s going to be hard to avoid. They haven’t gone on holiday immediately and my guess that this is part of an elaborate plan to allow them to slip away privately to a secret location at a time of their…

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