Is it the wards in their constituencies that matter?
Clearly the focus is going to be on the Lib Dems when the results are announced on Thursday and Friday and the areas that matter most, I’d suggest are where there is a sitting MP.
Almost certainly the MP incumbents will be producing aggregates of the votes cast in wards and devolved parliament seats within their constituency boundaries which could give a good indication about their current chances.
For many it’s not the big picture that matters most but their own future prospects and the other elections will provide pointers. So in Chris Huhne’s Eastleigh, for example, it’s the aggregate ward totals for the parties that we should be looking out for.
I do hope that someone will be keeping a track of this data in the seats of those LD MPs where there are elections.
The more of the 57 LD MPs that look destined to defeat in a general election the greater the problem for the leadership and, just possibly, the coalition.