Is he worth a 14/1 bet? I’ve been getting a number of requests for my view on whether Clegg will survive a disastrous series of results on Thursday and whether Huhne, Farron or AN Other would be the likely successor. I believe that Clegg has an extraordinary level of resilience and if he wants to carry on then he will do so – any observations I make here on the leadership have to be seen in that context. A key…
And the yellows move to their highest with ComRes for 6 months? With just a day’s campaigning left before Thursday crucial electoral test for all the parties the Lib Dem have moved to their highest ComRes share since last October while Labour drops four points to 37%. The change shown on the chart are with the last ComRes phone poll at the end of March. This isn’t to be confused with the firm’s online polling series. Following on from recent…
A new poll for STV by TNS-BMRB is just out with the SNP making more progress. The changes on the chart are with the last poll from the firm at the end of March. The full numbers taking into account both sections are:- Constituencies SNP 45 (+8) Lab 27 (-11) Con 15 (nc) LD 10 (+3) List SNP 38 (+3) Lab 25 (-10) Con 16 (+2) LD 9 (+1) Green 8 The fieldwork finished yesterday. These are dramatic changes and…
Is it the wards in their constituencies that matter? Clearly the focus is going to be on the Lib Dems when the results are announced on Thursday and Friday and the areas that matter most, I’d suggest are where there is a sitting MP. Almost certainly the MP incumbents will be producing aggregates of the votes cast in wards and devolved parliament seats within their constituency boundaries which could give a good indication about their current chances. For many it’s…
How’ll the firms deal with the “Ratty factor”? I love Marf’s exclusive cartoon for PB this morning – particularly Ratty’s graffiti “Who cares”? For that sentiment, surely, represents perhaps the biggest fear for the pollsters whose final surveys will be tested against real results this Friday. People might respond “Yes” or “No” when called in a survey and they might say they are 100% certain of voting but can we really believe them? The figures from the detailed data are…
Globe & Mail After Fianna Fáil and the True Finns, another mould-breaker? Despite the death of Bin Laden (and what will the impact of that be for US 2012?), normal democratic politics continues. It seems that many recent elections have deserved the “historic” tag – Ireland and Finland this year, plus a clutch in 2010 including the UK, Australia and the US Midterms. Could today’s election in Canada be about to join the list of mouldbreakers? At the start of…
The first hard news from Canada’s election will come in about four hours time. Double Carpet is ready with a new thread. In the meantime, as we reflect on this momentous day the above collection of clips from Politicos gives a real sense of how Osama death is seen in the US. Mike Smithson
There’s a new and almost certainly final YouGov poll on Thursday Welsh Assembly elections and the shares suggest that it will be touch and go as to whether Labour secures an overall majority. These are the detailed shares:- Constituencies Labour 45% Conservative 21% Plaid Cymru 18% Liberal Democrat 8% List Labour 41% Conservative 20% Plaid Cymru 18% Liberal Democrat 7% UKIP 7% Green 4% The seat calculators suggest this would give Labour exactly half of the 60 seats. Hopefully there…