The Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote shares

The Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote shares

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Thanks to YouGov’s Anthony Wells for flagging this up – the National Equivalent Vote calculated by Professors Rallings and Thrasher. The totals are in line with forecasts the pair made in early April. This based on taken a selection of individual ward results and using a complex formula to produce a nation projection. Note that this includes Scotland and Wales although there were not local elections there on Thursday. For comparison purposes the 2007 split was CON 38: LAB 26:…

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Jonathan’s Sunday Slot looks at Labour after the elections

Jonathan’s Sunday Slot looks at Labour after the elections

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Can the party now get serious Labour needs to get serious. Thursday’s results suggest that Labour is competitive again, but it will be hard to kick Cameron out of Downing Street. The Tories are rampant; they have renewed confidence and the No2Av campaign showed they take no prisoners. The weakness of the Lib Dems looks like bad news for Labour. And while Ed Miliband deserves credit for his positioning and for making Labour more voter friendly, the party urgently needs…

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Did Cameron help the LDs with this rare victory?

Did Cameron help the LDs with this rare victory?

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Did the PM’s campaigning encourage anti-Tory tactical voting? There were several requests yesterday for me to do something on why the mayoral election result in Bedford borough bucked the national trend. A bit of history: The Tories should have won this in a by-election in 2009 when their failure was put down to an “open primary” which produced a candidate from the Asian communities leading to huge rows and splits in the local party. This time the selection was restricted…

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Can Captain Scotland now deliver?

Can Captain Scotland now deliver?

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  How does Salmond use the powers at his disposal? There is a new political superhero in the country, standing victorious astride his domain, saltire-emblazoned cape billowing in the wind. Not even Labour at their most dominant, with their historic base in the country, popular Westminster administration and record in delivering devolution could win an outright majority. Considering that only two months ago Labour had double-digit leads in the polls, there’ll be more than a few looking at the Holyrood…

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Charles asks: Can the Union be saved?

Charles asks: Can the Union be saved?

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What are the lessons from Irish History? With Alec Salmond’s stunning victory in the Scottish Parliamentary elections, and the disarray among the Unionist parties, is independence now inevitable, or can the Union be saved? There are two main take-aways from the Irish Home Rule saga, both which have huge relevance today. 1) When the Home Rule movement began in the 1870s only a minority of Irish Radicals wanted independence. Most voters cared more about the injustices of Anglo-Irish rule: economic…

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What’ll be the fall-out from the elections?

What’ll be the fall-out from the elections?

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How can the coalition put the pieces back together? That the media focus has been on the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg after this week’s historic set of election is understandable. It was a very bad night for them and him but more relevantly, it was predictably so and the media love a news story that fits their narrative. Nonetheless, the reaction of senior Lib Dems such as former leaders Lords Steele and Ashdown and cabinet minister Chris Huhne in…

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ICM poised to win the referendum polling race

ICM poised to win the referendum polling race

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Do phone firms get better results? With barely a handful of declarations from Northern Ireland still to be made it’s almost a certainty that NO is going to win the referendum by a margin of about 68.5% to YES’s 31.5%. This is a great achievement for Matthew Elliot and all at NO2AV as well as to ICM whose final poll published in the Guardian on Wednesday evening had it 68-32. Interestingly, as the chart shows, it was the two phone…

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And now for the referendum…

And now for the referendum…

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Counting is taking place and the results are coming in. The best site to track the results is here. The turnout is 42% and it looks as though NO will secure at least 60% of the vote. I’m waiting for the Bedford Mayoral race result which has been fought like a parliamentary by-election between the Tories and the Lib Dems. The first round of voting is over and now the second preferences are being counted. Mike Smithson