Do early polls and betting mean that much? The build up to the 2012 White House race is starting to get more attention with lots of polling and betting interest. The question is whether we can read too much into the situation from early polling and betting. The chart shows the Betfair prices on the four favourites ate exactly this stage in 2007. Notice how the eventual winner John McCain had started to edge out – by July 2007 you…
Welcome to Henry G Manson I am pleased to report that Henry G has accepted an invitation join the PB team and will from this weekend have a regular slot. Henry is a long-standing Labour activist in the North East who has been sharing his insights on the site for several years. It was his posts last August that prompted a lot of PBers to get on Ed Miliband for the Labour leadership when could decent price were available. He’s…
Will he still be in the cabinet by the party conference? Those who bet that the resilient Lib Dem energy secretary would still be in the cabinet by the end of May have ended up as winners and Ladbrokes have been very prompt in paying out. The firm has now opened a follow-up market with the operative date being the start of the Lib Dem conference on September 17th. That’s quite a long way off and the whole business of…
Would the ICM approach have produced a blue lead? Last night, as reported in the previous thread, a new ComRes phone poll suggested that the Tories and Labour were now level pegging – the first time that Miliband’s party had not been in the lead since October 2010. They were both on 37% with the Lib Dems down on just 12%. But looking at the detailed data there’s a huge difference in the “quality” of support between the parties. As…
The latest ComRes phone poll for The Independent has Labour and the Tories level pegging on 37% which is the first tme since October 2010 that the red team has not been in the lead. This is only the second telephone survey since the May 5th elections and comes from the pollster that came in a respectable second place with its final AV poll. The LDs are down three to 12 while support for other parties, including the SNP, UKIP…
..a cartoon about FIFA from Marf
Is Huhne going to “be toast” or not? The first big Chris Huhne market, whether the LD energy secretary will still have his cabinet place by the end of the month, will be resolved at midnight and unless there’s something dramatic during the day it’s hard now to see those who gambled that he’d be out winning. On top of that there’s been the betting on which minster will be next out of the cabinet which has fluctuated harply. A…
Senior aides say this is what they want According to Tim Montgomerie at Con Home there’s a report by Rachel Sylvester in tomorrow’s Times that says that aides to Cameron and senior Tory ministers want the LDs to stay in government even if the Conservatives win a majority at the next election. Rachel Sylvester apparently says that there’s a view that Lib Dems are essential to ensure any Tory government isn’t held to ransom by “unreconstructed elements†amongst the blues….