Will he still be in the cabinet by the party conference?
Those who bet that the resilient Lib Dem energy secretary would still be in the cabinet by the end of May have ended up as winners and Ladbrokes have been very prompt in paying out.
The firm has now opened a follow-up market with the operative date being the start of the Lib Dem conference on September 17th. That’s quite a long way off and the whole business of the speeding point allegations will surely have been resolved by then. The firm is offering 5/6 that he will survive and 5/6 that he won’t.
A lot depends on the outcome of the police investigation and whether or not there are going to be prosecutions. According to the Guardian that should be resolved quite soon.
The decision, surely, will be taken by the DPP and the key element will be whether there is enough evidence that will stand up in court. On top of that there’s an Electoral Commission examination of Huhne’s 2010 election expenses.
My view is that Huhne is resilient enough to tough this all out and even if there’s a decision to prosecute he won’t necessarily step down from his cabinet post.
But is the 5/6 on him surviving a value bet? I’m not so sure. I’d take anything longer than even.