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“Devolution will kill [Scottish] nationalism stone dead” – George Robertson, Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, 1995. As bad political predictions go George Robertson’s prediction only has Sion Simon as a rival and I worry Labour are going to make the same mistake again. The latest polling in the tweets above shows great news for Labour and Unionism following the absolute clown show from the SNP over the last year yet whilst trust in the SNP leaders and SNP seem to have damaged…

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The odds on Trump regaining the White House in November’s election have eased a bit following the decision by the jury in the Carroll court defamation case. The decision by the jury that Trump has to pay Carroll $84m could undermine his position with voters across the country and punters have reacted accordingly. To be facing an opponent who can be branded a rapist makes Biden’s re-election task easier although Trump is still the betting favourite. What I find extraordinary…

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There is little doubt that this market is going to see a lot of activity in the coming months because Sunak or his successor has to go to the country before the end of January 2025. My view is that whoever is PM will try to hold on as long as possible and that the election date will be after September but who knows? The argument against going in November or later it’s that the British summertime has ended and…

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Although is is looking more likely that Trump will win I’m not tempted to bet for two reasons – the odds seem to tight and there’s a risk that the courts or his health could become a big obstacle. On the latter Trump’s lifestyle does not appear to be good for longevity. He takes little exercise and his diet could be much much better. Mike Smithson

More terrible Tory numbers so close to the election The most frightening figure for the Tories is that just 35% of GE2019 CON voters still back the party.

This is just nasty and shows how worried he is Mike Smithson

American voters look highly likely to witness a rematch in November, for the first time in almost 70 years. But while the candidates may look familiar to last time, the polls look quite different. In fact, Donald Trump has the best polling for a Republican nominee at this stage for at least 20 years. Over the last 20 years, and especially the last decade, the Republican Party has become a very successful minority party. Its big advantage in rural areas…

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Assume for a moment that you are Boris, and that you would like to be Prime Minister again. What are your prospects of regaining the Tory leadership? Before the GE? Nearly zero. You aren’t an MP, and Sunak has made it clear that you’re not going to be a candidate under his leadership. After the GE? Well, maybe. But someone else will have been made leader post-Sunak. Will they be in a hurry to welcome a rival back in a…

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