Has Labour got a Lib Dem target problem?

Has Labour got a Lib Dem target problem?

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New English seats: LD first with LAB second MAJ % Birmingham Yardley BC 0.1 Norwich South BC 0.7 Willesden BC 1.1 Sheffield South West BC 4.4 Hornsey and Wood Green 7.7 Bermondsey and Waterloo BC 18.7 Bristol West BC 24.2 Where should the red team focus its efforts? Thanks to poster “oldLabour”” on the previous thread for going through the Anthony Wells list of 2010 notional results for England with the proposed new boundaries. Download Anthony’s full spreadsheet here. One…

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Is the coalition now set to run the full course?

Is the coalition now set to run the full course?

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Will Weathercock’s big bets be losers? PB regulars will know that over the past 18 months one of the site’s most long-standing posters, Weathercock, has been predicting doom and gloom for the coalition and agreed a range of wagers that it will all have broken down by the end of October 2011. Well judging by the polling and the mood here at the LD conference in Birmingham the chances of an early break-down of the coalition look slim. Weathercock will…

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Is Tim Farron the Lib Dem Rick Perry?

Is Tim Farron the Lib Dem Rick Perry?

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Is his appeal restricted to the party faithful? Watching Tim Farron’s speech to the Lib Dem conference and the enthusiastic reaction he got from many delegates I got a feeling that maybe we were seeing a yellow version of Rick Perry. Farron’s big moment was when he declared that the coalition was temporary – a message that seemed to resonate. Perry, of course, is the governor of Texas whose entry to the Republican nomination race last month has been startling….

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Did Nick get too close to Dave?

Did Nick get too close to Dave?

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Channel 4 Is a bit of difference more acceptable to both parties? With the Lib Dem conference in Birmingham the most extraordinary thing, I’d suggest, is that there is little speculation about Clegg’s leadership. There is, however, an under-current amongst delegates here that in the early days of the coalition that their leader did get too close and the perception persists. Having said that it less than six months ago since the famous “microphone gaffe”, when Nick Clegg wondered how…

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If ICM did the daily poll would Miliband be finished?

If ICM did the daily poll would Miliband be finished?

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How much is his survival dependent on YouGov? Last Monday HenryG Manson, our regular Labour columnist, posted the following about the Labour leadership:- “There is no way in the world Ed Miliband will be allowed to lose the next election. If it looks like he cannot win then he’ll be gone. MPs, grassroots and unions all desperately want to win outright and failing that be largest party. I’ve never known the movement soon focused and hungry – more so than…

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Labour loses its ComRes lead

Labour loses its ComRes lead

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A new online poll by ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror has the following shares with changes on the last such poll in August . Con 38% (-) Lab 38% (-2) LD 11% (-) Others 13% (+2) So another pollster has Labour slipping back. Only YouGov now has Labour in the 40s. In other findings : Only 23% agree Lib Dems have “done a good job of moderating Conservative policies” – Only 24% agree Lib Dems a…

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Does Chris Huhne think that he won’t be charged?

Does Chris Huhne think that he won’t be charged?

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News of the World June 19 2010 What do we make of his Times comments? The threat of criminal charges hovering over Chris Huhne, which really started with the NOTW revelations last year about an affair, are referred to in a pre-conference Times interivew with the Lib Dem energy secretary. The report notes: “Mr Huhne has long intrigued colleagues by appearing to shrug off the police investigation into his driving record, and accusations — which he denies — that he…

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Are the Lib Dems over the worst?

Are the Lib Dems over the worst?

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PB’s first conference season poll summary Today we start the 2011 conference season which is traditionally a time when we look at the state of each party. As happens every year the first to he staged is the Lib Dem one which like the other main parties is holding its annual gathering in a big city, Birmingham, rather than at the seaside. Labour, next week, are in Liverpool while the Tories head to Manchester once again. From a polling point…

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