|New English seats: LD first with LAB second||MAJ %|
|Birmingham Yardley BC||0.1|
|Norwich South BC||0.7|
|Sheffield South West BC||4.4|
|Hornsey and Wood Green||7.7|
|Bermondsey and Waterloo BC||18.7|
|Bristol West BC||24.2|
Where should the red team focus its efforts?
Thanks to poster “oldLabour”” on the previous thread for going through the Anthony Wells list of 2010 notional results for England with the proposed new boundaries. Download Anthony’s full spreadsheet here.
One thing that really struck me is how, if the new electoral map is agreed, the main battle will be between the Blues and the Reds. In many ways the yellows are a side show.
Listed above is the complete list of “new seats” in England where the Lib Dem are calculated to have come first and Labour second.
The striking feature is how short it is. Labour may have made huge polling inroads against the Lib Dems since the coalition but converting this to vital gains in a general election might be challenging.
For there are just seven seats on the list and in several of them Labour’s task will be made much harder because in several they would be fighting popular and well-known incumbents.
Simon Hughes’s new Bermondsey and Waterloo seat is there and Labour have failed to unseat him in that part of central London for nearly thirty years. Even in the Blair landslide of 1997 Bermondsey stayed with Simon.
Two other notables on the list are ministers Sarah Teather and Lynne Featherstone. I wouldn’t bet on either losing.