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Blair Freebairn looks back and looks forward Thomas Huxley’s observation that many a beautiful theory was killed by an ugly fact is an often ignored truth. Back in 2007 on this site I theorised that the coming 2010 election was going to be decided not in cities, rural areas or Scotland, but in the English towns. So what actually happened? Above are the 2010 results on a map distorted so that each constituency takes up roughly the same area. The…

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Can she go on riding the storm? Several papers are leading with the immigration row this morning and the story does not seem to be going away. After her commons statement yesterday the home secretary and most senior women in Cameron’s government, Theresa May, will be back at Westminster in a few hours facing questions from the home affairs select committee. To me the most significant element of yesterday was the way that David Cameron sat by her as she…

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What will you be doing at 10pm on May 7 2015? At exactly ten o’clock in the evening three and a half years on from tonight the polls will be closing in the 2015 general election. For the previous half or so so a select group of people will already have a good idea of the outcome. These are of course the team carrying out the exit poll and the senior members of the election teams at the major broadcasters….

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How can the Labour leader build public awareness? The Indy has now put right the online version of this morning’s editorial about Ed Miliband’s comments on the St’ Paul’s demo. But, alas. it’s there for posterity in the printed edition and I got a screen grab – see above – earlier. But what a stupid cock-up. Surely the un-named journalist who is a main leader at the paper should not have allowed this to happen? For the paper this’ll be…

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Telegraph Should you be backing the HomeSec for next cabinet exit? The main lead in the Times and the Telegraph this morning is what the latter is calling the “scandal” of the relaxation of border controls during the summer. This is how the Telegraph’s James Kirkup is describing it:- “The Home Secretary will be accused of being responsible for the most serious immigration scandal to face the Coalition since it took office last year. Events at the UK Border Agency,…

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Is this why he’s edging up the leader ratings? YouGov’s weekly leader ratings are out and show Cameron unchanged at 41/52 “well/badly”; Miliband up a net 4 at 28/56 and Clegg up a net 2 at 24/66. The Miliband numbers reflect a trend that’s been seen since before the conference season started – better figures for their leader from Labour voters. Back in mid-September he was at 52/39 – today’s data has that at 62/28. That’s a net move of…

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Observer How seriously should we take IDS’s threat? A big story in the Observer which could have a massive impact on the next general election is a warning by former Tory leader and cabinet minister, Iain Duncan Smith, that Cameron could face a back-bench rebellion unless the boundary changes are abandoned. These, of course, reduce the the number of seats from 650 to 600 and bring in new constituencies which most experts believe would make the task of the Conservatives…

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