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Voting intention 36/40/9 The Sunday Times poll from YouGov is just out and the VI figures of 36/40/9 show the Labour lead down to 4 but still comfortably ahead of the Tories and still in a position that would give them a majority if there was a general election tomorrow. But, of course, there isn’t going to be an election tomorrow and some of the key measures for taking the political temperature are the regular leader ratings asking whether respondents…

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This month’s ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is just out and shows very little change on a month ago. The Tories are down two, the LDs and others are up 1 with Labour no change on 39%. Like all current polling the voting intention question was based on what respondents would do in a hypothetical general election tomorrow. I’d like pollsters to start putting the May 7 2015 date to see what happens. It…

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Could the “anti-Romney mantle” be moving to Newt? The picture of five leading contenders for the Republican nomination for president shows today’s average from Real Clear Politics and has the betting front runner, Mitt Romney, ahead by less than half a point. Many commentators have observed how one anti-Romney candidate afrer another has moved forward but then has eased back in the polling after appearing to be the main contender. The previous ABM (Anyone But Mitt) was Herman Cain whose…

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Is the government still failing to justify the need for austerity? November’s news has contained a steady stream of unions announcing that their members have backed strike action in protest against changes to their pension schemes. It has also contained a lot of economic news pointing to a marked slowdown in the economy at home and abroad. Expect these stories to run for months. The first flare-up will come on 30 November when the largest single day of action for…

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Some of you will have noticed that over the past four days we have not been carrying any display advertising from Messagespace. This has been a test to see how much better it makes PB work. The problem is that there’s a down-side – PB loses this revenue stream. One suggestion is that we drop the ads permanently and run a permanent appeal to “Help keep PB Ad-Free”. It would be good if Messagespace could refine their offering so it…

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How frosty is the relationship? I think Marf’s cartoon sums it up brilliantly – the relationship that’s now developed between Angela Merkel and David Cameron. Today’s meeting is clearly important and Cameron really does not have the leeway back home that would allow him to manoeuvre. We’ll see how this develops. If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints, please contact her at marfcartoons@btinternet.com @MikeSmithsonPB

Henry G Manson on the political implications With a new film about the life of Margaret Thatcher in the offing, a comedian I’ve never heard of making controversial remarks about her death, the return of Europe as a big political issue, strikes and the prospect of mass unemployment it seems that Margaret Thatcher is back. As Ben Brogan has argued David Cameron has reason to fear unflattering comparisons with the Iron Lady. “The narrative on the backbenches is that Mr…

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How do you cut deficit and protect jobs? Marf’s cartoon this afternoon strikingly illustrates what is becoming the government’s biggest challenge. This week’s numbers are shocking and the phrase “worst since 1994” is going to be heard time and time again. But what’s the answer given the need to maintain the confidence of the markets through the deficit reduction programme? The coalition is helped by Labour’s inability at the moment to articulate a plan that sounds plausible. But ministers cannot…

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